Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

What a combination! Basketball and Snow!! And both are coming this week it appears. We know the Basketball is here. The ACC tournament is in full swing, but what about the weather? Well, it’s a bit early…but it appears we have a decent shot at some March Snow this weekend and that will only increase the “March Madness!”

Here’s the latest forecast from our United States model called the GFS.

That’s right! We could see some snow on Saturday night and Sunday morning. We’ll see. A forecaster in Charlotte is only rating the chance at 10% right now…

The system is still off the west coast and that’s why the confidence is so low. Honestly, we won’t know until tomorrow when it gets onto the continental US that the models can really pick up on what’s going to potentially happen.

My favorite forecaster is Van Denton and this is what’s on his Facebook page. The top one is the European Model and the bottom one is the GFS (US Model).

Van’s Post:

2:40 pm Wed March 8, 2017 Feel free to SHARE

Still way too early to have a good fix on specifics for Saturday night/Sunday morning, but here is what the 2 models show that go out that far. The GFS has lowered amounts from the past 2 days and last night and the Euro has remained about the same.

We expect colder air to push in from the north on Saturday and an area of low pressure to arrive from the south on Saturday night and pass to our east on Sunday. This combination would produce the snow chance that the models are showing. The ground is warm and that would cut into amounts that we see accumulate. One thing to note about the models, they show the amount of snow that actually falls based on it all sticking. With a warm ground, much of it would melt and depth would likely remain below what a model actually shows.

By tomorrow night the energy will reach the mainland (currently over the Pacific Ocean). Once it reaches land, we will get better data from Weather balloon sounds which take measurements within the storm. Then we will have a much better idea what to actually expect from this system. We usually start putting out OUR forecast for snow amounts within 48 hours.

So, we’ll see. Either way…it’s kind of exciting. I am reminded of the Blizzard of 1993 that occurred during the ACC Tournament. Wow! That was something! Here’s the snowfall map from that one…

We had that 22″ amount at my house. Unreal! Mt. Mitchell got 5 feet!!!

This was a picture from Eastern Tennessee…

I remember the snow drifted up to four feet in some places around the house. It was truly an amazing event!

Well, you can be sure we’re not looking at anything like that…but, nonetheless, the timing of the event being March 11 and 12 this Saturday and Sunday is very similar to 1993 in timing.

So, enjoy the weekend! I will! Snow and Basketball! Wow! What a potential combination!

This week’s Two-Minute Tuesday, “Children in Big Church? It’s up to over 4,300 views. Amazing!



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There’s just something about it! I love it!



It’s an amazing thing! It stops us in our tracks and for that reason, I’m glad. I’m glad we get the chance to slow down and take our foot off the gas.

Last Friday night, we watched the snow coming down through the lights I have in the front yard. It was so awe-inspiring to watch the swirls of snow.


It’s an amazing thing. Snow must form on particles of dust in the atmosphere and fall through the sky to the earth.


And in that process, it can’t go through a layer of warm air or it will turn into sleet (snow that’s melted and refrozen). When it does hit the ground, it piles up and then we have fun. Or at least my family does.


Here were the official snowfall estimates from the weather service:


Many have asked me: “Which forecaster was most accurate for Wilkes County?” Well, from the beginning (about 36 hours out from the event), Matthew East of Asheville, NC seemed to have it nailed down the best. It wasn’t perfect (because no one saw the warm nose of air coming into the Charlotte and Raleigh areas), but East was the most accurate in my estimation.


We got close to 8″ at my house. 7 and 5/8″ to be exact. Some of the most reliable forecasters only had Wilkes getting a dusting to an inch. However, the system moved further north and further west than anticipated by most of the models.

According to the models at a time period of about 36 hours from the event, the NAM hit Wilkesboro the best of the other models.

15895659_1353385378059498_2459213497755655190_oBut, even it was too low. And it was a bust for Asheboro, and Raleigh and points east. Even the Weather Channel missed it. They sent Jim Cantore to Raleigh, only to have him leave and end up at Virginia Beach. Point being: IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST SNOWSTORMS IN NORTH CAROLINA with any real accuracy for everyone in the state. Why? Because our state provides such a transition zone.

Many are asking: “Are we done with winter?” Nope! We’ll get a reprieve for the rest of January, though. It will warm up to near 70 by Friday. Next week and the following week will be above average, but as we get into February, the roller coast ride will bring us back to Winter. We’ll turn cold again and potentially have more wintry precipitation. This winter is shaping up to be more of an old-fashioned winter where you have the ups and downs. It’s crazy that Reidsville hit -1, (a record low for the date), yesterday morning and will be at 68 on Friday. That’s crazy!!

I hate we missed church, but it was just too dangerous. The parking lot was a skating rink and the temps were just too cold. I’m looking forward to seeing everyone tomorrow night, though! I just love our church family, because we are “forever family” in Christ.

Congratulations to Clemson:

unknownI stayed up and watched the game between Clemson and Alabama for the 2017 National Championship. However, they need to start announcing that the championship game is on two days, not one. The game didn’t end until 12:30 am, so they should have said, “National Championship game 1.9.17 and 1.10.17.” These TV networks are crazy. They keep the East Coast up so late! UGH!!

See that coach, Dabo Swinney? He praise the Lord all last night. So did #4 Deshaun Watson and #13 Hunter Renfro. They all gave the Lord the praise and the credit last night! Praise the Lord! What a tremendous platform for the Gospel!

Speaking of tremendous people, I want to plug my good friend and mentor, Dr. David Black.


His wife Becky Lynn (Mama B to me), died just over 3 years ago of cancer. Dr. Black will be running his first marathon this May. He’s calling it…


“Piggin’ Out for a Cancer Cure.” Don’t you love the picture!! I do! Perhaps you would consider joining me in giving in honor of Becky Lynn. You can do so here: http://pigginout.kintera.org/faf/home/default.asp?ievent=1169252

Dave will be running all 26.1 miles and I’m proud of him and I’m so grateful for all that he does and for what he’s doing to help UNC Hospitals to find a cure endometrial cancer as he runs in the Flying Pig Marathon in Cincinnati, Ohio. http://flyingpigmarathon.com

Here’s today’s Two-Minute Tuesday.

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A White Christmas?

Short answer…

No. Not likely this year at all.

Not in North Carolina at least. The weather pattern will go from being bitterly cold, (as I mentioned a while back), with even a bit of frozen precipitation potentially, (early Saturday morning), to a more relaxed and warmer pattern toward the last week of the month (week of Christmas and into the first of January). This is the December 21-27 outlook:


There will be no white Christmas with that look for sure. It’s just too warm. We’ll be in the low to mid 50’s with that look, about 5-7 degrees above normal. We will still have a wetter period, but it will be just wet, not frozen. See below.


What’s going to be interesting is what happens after the first of the year. There is a fight in the upper atmosphere over the Arctic and into Siberia. Where is the coldest air going to lodge? Will it be over Asia or will it be over Canada? Last week and this week (coming Thursday/Friday) the coldest air has split toward North America and NOT Siberia.

But, what about the rest of winter? Will it split off and we get what’s called a “polar vortex split,” where a piece of the polar vortex rotates our way (like we will experience Thursday/Friday of this week)? Or will we have more of a zonal (west to east) flow of weather from Pacific to Atlantic. For our good winters, (if you like snow), we need a south to north (active southern jet stream) that ejects moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Our best snows come up I-85 from Atlanta. It’s too early to tell. I’d say it’s 50/50 on whether it will be a colder and more snowy winter versus warmer and drier. We’ll know a lot more in another couple of weeks and I’ll update you. 🙂

I continue to be concerned about what’s taught in our colleges. I talked about that today in my Two-Minute Tuesday. I wrote this preface on Facebook…

“Progressive Liberal Christianity-Like My Loose Treadmill” Forgive me for the length of this video…it’s 6 minutes. However it is critical. The video will describe what some are seeking to do to subvert orthodox Christianity today. To change the doctrines and orthodox meanings of the basic and foundational tenets of Scripture, (doctrine that has been accepted and practiced for centuries), to a loose theology that perverts these doctrines by watering them down or changing them altogether, is seriously and fearfully damning to many unsuspecting and very impressionable souls. What is more shameful is that this type of perverted theology is being taught under the guise of “Christianity” to our young people in many of our colleges and universities and even some churches. What is to follow is one example from the University of Southern California. Thanks for watching and spreading the word! 


Have a great week!


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Do you struggle with focus? Are you doing what you are supposed to be doing? Do you know what that is? Do you understand God’s will for your life?

I’ve written extensively about these topics in the past and I’ll not go into the details again here. However, you can simply type “God’s will” into the search box above and see past posts. Yet, I bring up those questions of “focus” to focus us on what’s important.

What is important in your life? Perhaps these (in no certain order):

  • Family
  • God
  • Health
  • Money
  • Relationships

All of these areas require focus, do they not? You and I have to be focused, for instance, on not overspending if we want to see that we don’t end up out of money and broke. Do you check your bank account often? I do. I do that so that I stay focused and I can invest money where it’s needed the most and can be used for eternal things. I’m trying to be focused.

Let’s take another area of life. Let’s pick “Family.” Are you focused? How is your relationship with your spouse? Your children? It’s mostly going to be a function of time. Yep…time. It’s impossible for us to grow our relationship with anyone unless we spend time with them. I think you’d agree. So, do you talk? Do you communicate with your family? Do you have “down time” where you can chat with your family members? If we don’t make time to do so, it will never happen. The truth is: we DO NOT have time to develop relationships in our lives…we have to MAKE TIME! It’s got to be intentional.

So, how is it with your kids, mom and dad? How is it going for them in their lives? Do you have teenagers? The only way you are going to really know how things are going with them is to spend time with them and verbally talk. Oh, I know you can read their tweets and see what they post on Instagram. But, it’s got to be more than that! If that’s how you communicate, then you are no more to them than an acquaintance who happens to live in the same house.

I read an article recently about why our kids walk away from them faith. It’s excellent. http://theaquilareport.com/why-christian-kids-leave-the-faith/

Bottom line: we’ve got to be spending intentional time. Focused time. If you look at your children’s lives and you ask yourself: “Do I really know what’s going on inside of their heads?”, and the answer you got in return is a bit fuzzy, then you need to take time to go to their room tonight and sit down and say, “How’s it going?” It’s that simple. Once they say, “Fine.” Ask it again and add the word “really.”

How’s it going, really?

Try it. It works. Why? Because they’ll see you care. They’ll see they are more to you than just their kid that you hope doesn’t flunk out of school, or gets into trouble or might embarrass you. They will see that you really do care. And let me add this. Prepare to lose sleep. Why? Because you are worried about them? No, not necessarily. You’ll lose sleep because once you get them talking, they will talk your ears off. They will literally share their heart and how they feel with words and emotions that run the gamut of their feelings and that will TAKE A WHILE. That might mean that a conversation you start at 10:45 pm doesn’t end until 12:30 am, but it will be worth every minute of it, I promise you!

Will you be tired the next day? Probably…but, even in that…the Lord will give you energy that sleep can’t give and He’ll do the same for your child. He is faithful and His mercies are new each morning!

I love my children. I know you know that. But, I just have to say it again! I dearly love my children! I’m so grateful and thankful for them and their unique personalities and idiosyncrasies and little quirky ways. I love the fact that they put up with a dad that makes a lot of mistakes and fumbles and bumbles around trying to be a good daddy, but often ends up being a babbling goofball. I’m grateful for a fantastic wife and mom, who already does the things I’ve mentioned (very well, I might add). But, it’s the dad’s who so often struggle with spending the intentional, concerted time with our children. Dads, can I get a witness?

We long for peace and for serenity and that’s why we’ll often sweep things under the rug or just hope difficulties go away. Why? Because we aren’t good at multi-tasking and we don’t want any more on our plates than we already have. So, it’s easy to stick our heads in the sand and the next thing you know…we don’t have a relationship with our children that’s any closer or vibrant than one of their acquaintances. That’s sad. But, it’s happening in many of our homes.

Dad, think about your children. Think about how they look (even if they are adults now). Think about clasping your hands on their cheeks and looking them in the eyes and saying,

“Let me look at you. Let me remember how you look. Let me look into your eyes and see your heart and know how I can love you, pray for you, support you and encourage you. Let me be here for you. Let me know what I can do.”

I dearly and I mean dearly love these people and so I’m bound and determined to stay connected with them and to intentional love them.


Of course this includes my new granddaughter Evelyn. A new family picture forthcoming soon! 🙂 May we never allow our lofty goals for our children to interfere with simply recognizing that they are OUR children and are a gift from God.

By the way, some have asked: “What about the Weather? What’s the latest winter forecast?” Well, I’ll link to my good buddy Joe Bastardi for the latest on winter. Click the link below and then click on “Saturday Summary.”


Here’s what the forecast calls for in the next two weeks… This is Dec 8-13th.


That’s cold air folks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of ice or snow during that period of time. No, I’m not saying a huge storm. But, with the jet stream finally shifting and the Gulf of Mexico finally opening for business and injecting moisture this way…well…you heard it here first. 🙂


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Winter Forecast-2017

Each year I give you what I believe is the best prognostication available regarding the upcoming winter. There are several below and I think you’ll see a pattern: almost no one agrees. 🙂 This is Rob Guarino’s forecast. He’s fairly solid. He lists exact snow totals at the bottom 🙂 
North Carolina Winter Forecast 2016-17 (La Nina Arrives)
Winter Forecast
La Nina is here but it’s on the weaker side as of September. What is La Nina? It is a cooling of the water in the equatorial Pacific that occurs at irregular intervals and is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns complementary to those of El Niño, but less extensive and damaging in their effects.
We see this weak La Nina to peak now but get a second burst in December and January before moving to a neutral pattern Febraury and March. This weak La Nina means a colder winter for most of the nation and certainly much colder than last winter. The key to this winter will be how cold is the cold and how dominate will the Northern Jet (Arctic Jet) be vs. the moisture loaded Southern (Sub-Tropical Jet)?. Last year the Southern Jet was the big player off a massive El Nino but this winter that will not be the case most of the country.
We expect an average swing of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) but much more of a dip from the AO (Arctic Oscillation) bringing a few polar vortex periods and many Alberta Clippers.
Winter Forecast
12.7 Asheville 13.2″ 10.0″
17.5 Banner Elk 38.7″ 30.4″
16.9 Boone 35.3″ 29.1″
25.5 Grandfather Mountain 53.5″ 44.7″
  5.6 Highlands 11.8″ 7.9″
  2.6 Kerr Scott Reservoir   9.7″ 7.4″
  1.4 Morganton   3.9″ 2.8″
  3.3 Oconaluftee   6.5″ 5.8″
  2.6 Pisgah Forest   7.5″ 7.1″
1.4 Waterville   4.1″ 2.3″
Average Snow & Forecast
  2.4 Chapel Hill   3.7″ 2.5″
  1.9 Charlotte   4.3″ 3.1″
  1.7 Concord   3.7″ 3.1″
  0.7 Durham   1.9″ 1.2″
  0.2 Gastonia   0.9″ 0.8″
  3.9 Greensboro   7.6″ 5.2″
  1.3 Henderson   2.7″ 1.9″
  2.3 Hickory   7.7″ 7.0″
  0.9 High Point   1.8″ 1.3″
  4.2 Mount Airy   9.3″ 7.7″
  1.7 Raleigh   3.9″ 3.4″ 

This weak La Nina winter will bring near normal temperatures to the region. We expect less chances for snow this season, and slightly below average total snow this winter in North Carolina. Precipitation will be slightly below normal for much of the Winter in Tar Heel Country. http://thewinterforecast.com/north-carolina-winter-forecast-2016-17-la-nina-arrives/

Now, just to show you how different forecasts can be, take a look at the Farmer’s Almanac below. I’m still trying to figure out exactly what it means. I guess “penetrating cold and very wet,” means a greater chance for snow/ice? Hmm. Your guess is as good as mine.


Here is AccuWeather’s forecast:


Here’s another guy’s forecast that’s usually a fairly good forecaster…


The Old Farmer’s Almanac says this:

Region 4, which is in the Southeast Region and includes portions of Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, is predicted to have a winter that is warmer than normal with near to below-average snowfall and other precipitation for winter 2016-2017.
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/3421319/old-farmers-almanac-publishes-2016-2017-winter-weather-predictions/#DyOjdmf9GzPGTzuz.99

So, you know what? Your guess is as good as mine! I hope you enjoyed the early look at Winter! Pray for us as we (Dale Jennings, Kandace, Clara and myself) head out to the Philippines that we may share the love of Christ and see many lives changed and impacted for Jesus!


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It’s up to $1.5 BILLION!!


Got your lottery ticket yet?

Not me.

I won’t be buying any. In fact, I don’t want any. (Someone gave me a lottery ticket one time, and after I got home I tore it up and threw it away.) Why? Because I do not want to be lured into anything that could be detrimental to others. Truly, the lottery is killing a lot of poor families. There are folks who buy lottery tickets (because they are addicted to gambling) versus food for their family. That’s so sad.

Somebody asked me the other day, “Pastor, what if someone won the lottery and wanted to pay off the building debt with their tithe?” I said, “I would politely say, ‘No thanks.'” Why? Because in my heart and mind, that’s money that was won by gambling. The person then asked, “Preacher, don’t you think people put ‘dirty money’ in the offering plate every week?” I said, “Yes…but I don’t know that it’s ‘dirty money.’ With the scenario you just described, I’d know about it.” Now, that’s a personal preference and I can’t be dogmatic about it.

In fact, as I said in my “Two-Minute Tuesday” today, I don’t believe buying a lottery ticket is a sin, but I do believe it “feeds the greed” within us and places our trust on man and not God.

According to The Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention, here are three (3) interesting facts about state lotteries.

  1. In 2014 lotteries took in $70.1 billion in sales. That’s more than Americans in every state spent on books, recorded music, video games, and tickets to sporting events and movies.
  2. In five states, people spend more than $600 dollars per person per year on lottery tickets: Rhode Island, South Dakota, Massachusetts, West Virginia, and Delaware.
  3. The poorest 1/3 of households purchase 1/2 of all lottery tickets.

The Bible is clear:

Hebrews 13:5

Keep your life free from love of money, and be content with what you have, for he has said, “I will never leave you nor forsake you.”

Proverbs 10:4

A slack hand causes poverty, but the hand of the diligent makes rich.

1 Timothy 6:17

…nor to set their hopes on the uncertainty of riches, but on God, who richly provides us with everything to enjoy.

As for me…I’m going to store up treasures in heaven where moths and rust won’t destroy and thieves won’t break in and steal. Jesus said, “You can’t serve God and money.” The Bible says: “Godliness with contentment is GREAT gain.” And “If a man doesn’t work…let him not eat.” So, that’s my take on the lottery.

Here’s the video. (You’ll note when I cut the video, which I actually taped on Monday, the jackpot was only $1.3 billion):

When are we going to have a scene like this:


Well, most of the weather prognosticators thought we would have had some by now. The El Nino was so strong that it overwhelmed December and it’s been slow for the pattern to change. But, it finally flipped last week. We are now firmly in a “Negative” pattern, which is code for COLD. The problem is (as always) getting the moisture synced up with the cold. That’s the hard part. We had plenty of moisture, but no cold air. And now we’ve got the cold air, but the moisture is limited. Will the two come together? Well, that will mean that the northern jet stream  will need to buckle south and provide the cold air at the same time the southern jet stream sends moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Again…it’s all timing.

What I’m seeing is the two weeks we’re going to be close, but probably no cigar (as the old saying goes). We’ll be a bit too warm (even though this weekend might be a closer call than some are now saying). But, I do believe as we move toward the end of the month and into February that we’re finally going to see wintry precipitation. But, here’s the truth. The pattern for the remainder of the winter, (once it sets up), normally persists throughout the rest of the winter. So, whatever happens in the next 3 weeks will tell the tale. Personally, I still believe we’ll see some snow, but the biggest chance looks to be February. Remember it snowed three times last February in the winter I called “Delayed but not Denied” and we could be in for a repeat performance. We’ll see.

Please be in prayer for these lovely ladies…

12494685_1113628831989271_4261898653360187423_n copy

That’s (Left to Right), Kristie Cothren, Michele and Julianna Cordray, Lakyn and Melanie Parrish, Jennifer Spencer, Tabitha Garza and Kandace and Pam Brown. 9 strong! And they’re in China right now helping minister to some really, really needy orphans and workers. Please lift the up to the Father, will you? They are living in pretty tough conditions. It got down to almost 40 degrees in their rooms the other night because there was no power. I Facetimed (is that a word?) with Pam and Kan this morning (which was about 9 pm their time…since they are 13 hours ahead) and they were doing well. They were tired and getting ready for bed. The food is kind of rough and the beds are hard as bricks. But, that’s mission work, folks and they’re used to that. But, nonetheless, thanks for the prayers.

How am I doing? Peachy! I’ve got wonderful help. Katy is a fabulous cook and my mom and dad are nearby and I’ve had tons of offers from others (probably many of you reading this). So, thank you, thank you, thank you! And get this! I’ve not even had to fix country ham and scrambled eggs yet (my specialty). 🙂

And I have a wonderful ministry assistant…


My love to you all!


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I’ve been thinking about the New Year and my family and my life and the goals I have for the coming year and that certainly includes the church (Mt. Pleasant Baptist Church). I bet you’ve probably been thinking about the new year and things you’d like to see happen in the new year as well.

As I’ve thought about these things, my mind has been hovering around thoughts of the church. Not just the church I help to lead, but “the” Church (big “C”) of Jesus Christ in America today. The truth is. The Church is in trouble. Big-time. Churches are falling apart right and left.

I heard of another church, (just today as a matter of fact), that is going through very difficult times. It broke my heart! I had tears in my eyes as I learned of the trouble. How does this sort of thing happen and how do we keep it from happening?

Well, my experience (as an outsider looking in…because I’m fortunate that I’ve never experienced a church split) is that churches who go through church splits often have people who have taken their eyes off of Jesus and His agenda and started focusing on their on desires and agendas. Honestly, all of this can really be boiled down to one word: Selfishness. It becomes a “my way or the highway” sort of deal. And it’s so, so sad. And I know it breaks the heart of Jesus. After all, He died for the Church!

Folks, we MUST REMEMBER WHO THE ENEMY IS. Who is the enemy? Satan! Satan is the enemy…not your fellow members or leadership. Once a church forgets that and the gloves come off, it gets really messy and nasty in a hurry. And I honestly don’t know of anything more gut-wrenching than a church split. It will define that church to the community for the next generation. It will be said in the community, “Oh yeah…that’s the church that couldn’t agree and get along and split in so and so ____insert the year.”

How do we prevent this? Honestly, leadership has to stay sober and vigilant and watchful for issues and problems. Deacons have to be white blood cells and help to kill the cancer cells of any divisiveness they know of and people must be willing to swallow hard and follow their leadership (unless it’s heretical or off base spiritually or doctrinally). Oh and did I say the key is prayer? Much prayer. Concerted prayer. Fervent prayer. Daily prayer.

Bottom line: Being part of a church is like being part of a family. None of us always get our way all of the time. Think about your own family if you doubt that. How often are there disagreements that have to be worked through in your home? Many times, right? Yep…mine too! So, diligence in the Word and prayer are the keys.

Can I ask you to do us pastors a favor? Well…maybe you could give us three minutes and watch this short video. I PROMISE you, if you watch it…you’ll be laughing your head off in the first 10 seconds. See if you agree:


Seriously, there are some pretty cool things that happen along the way when the Lord is at work. I got this email last week…

Pastor Kevin, I wanted to say how thankful we are that God pointed us in the way of you and your family and MPBC. It has literally changed our lives. And to think we are almost 2 year members and working in the church. Praise the Lord!

How cool is that!! And this…


That scene (above) will never happen in a nursery. The is mimicking worship and that’s why children are welcome and yes, “allowed” in our services. (Truly, my family and I went to a church years ago on a trip where we were told that children “aren’t allowed” in the service and that “We have a place for them.”)

Here’s a few granddaughter pictures of late… Eating raisins together…


Reading the Bible together…


Folks, it doesn’t get any better than that!

Here’s one of the latest forecasts for January through March from the Atmospheric and Environmental Research group. One word: COLD


Here’s today’s latest Two-Minute Tuesday- “God and America.” You might learn something about the history of our nation that will surprise you. I hope you enjoy:

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