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Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

Mother Nature and God

So, is Mother Nature mad right now? I heard that stated by a weather forecaster this morning as he showed a chart of all the hurricanes and typhoons in the Atlantic and Pacific, respectively. Is that true? Is she mad? Wait a minute? Just who exactly is Mother Nature? Where does she live? Where is her throne? What’s her location in the universe? I’m being facetious of course! There is not a Mother Nature. Anyone who knows me, knows this is a pet-peeve of mine. God is in control. Not Mother Nature or Mother Earth, et al.

He it is who makes the clouds rise at the end of the earth,
    who makes lightnings for the rain
    and brings forth the wind from his storehouses. Psalm 135:7

Praise the Lord from the earth,
    you great sea creatures and all deeps,
fire and hail, snow and mist,
    stormy wind fulfilling his word! Psalm 148:7-8

So, God is in control. Yes. Well, is He in control of the weather. Yes. So, is He mad at us? Is He trying to get us! I’ve been asked that question a lot lately. Particularly as Hurricane Florence is bearing down on the coast of NC/SC. Well, here’s my take on this matter. Think this through with me.

In the beginning, God made heaven and earth and He made Adam and Eve. And all was “very good.” But sin came into the picture. The Fall of Man. They sinned and everything changed. Think about that. From the beginning Adam and Eve were walking around naked. They were not dealing with storms, tornadoes, hurricanes or even rain. They lived in a very temperate climate. They weren’t wearing North Face jackets and Under Armour shoes. They were naked and living in a climate that was very comfortable. No real heat or cold or storms. Certainly no hurricanes.

So what happened? Sin! The Flood and death… Storms… Hurricanes, typhoons, upheaval. The earth ruptured from underneath and the rains came! Noah’s Flood! Bang! Weather patterns and storms were born! And we’ve been living with the effects ever since. Remember, Romans 8 says the “earth groans,” and it does. The earth feels the effects of sin, just like the universe. But one day, Jesus will reverse the curse and that goes for the earth. The earth will be refurbished (2 Peter 3) and all will be back to the original condition. But until then, we deal with hurricanes.

Yes, the Lord is in control and He could stop Florence if He wants to…no question about that. After all… The LORD by wisdom founded the earth, By understanding He established the heavens. By His knowledge the deeps were broken up And the skies drip with dew. Proverbs 3:19-20

Yet, God has a plan and purpose in all things. His ways aren’t our ways and His thoughts aren’t our thoughts. So, I trust Him. And I continue to pray. I pray for the people at our NC/SC coast, because this could be really, really bad. We may mark this storm as the worst to ever hit NC/SC (beating Hazel, Hugo and Fran). We’ll see.

In the meantime, I trust God…not Mother Nature. He is one in control!

“While the earth remains, Seedtime and harvest, And cold and heat, And summer and winter, And day and night shall not cease.” Genesis 8:22

I praise the Lord for His goodness and I’m praying that people will listen and evacuate and be ready. I pray people will not value “stuff” over their lives. I pray that after all is said and done, we’ll help our neighbors as they rebuild and show the love of Christ in the midst of whatever happens.

Kevin

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Early Winter Forecast 2018-19

Well, the early forecasts are starting to come in for the Winter forecast for 2018-19. My favorite (non-regional, local) forecaster is from Pennsylvania. His name is Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell.com. He is an excellent forecaster because he uses his brain…not just computer models. Joe uses the past to help see into the future. Solomon says there is nothing new under the sun and that’s true! He uses what are called “analog years” to look at the current weather and what has happened in the last couple of years to then find years in the past that may have had similar patterns. These become “analog years,” or comparative years. In other words, you can genuinely look to the past to predict the future.

Now, Joe is not a perfect forecaster. No one is or can be. Only the Lord knows the weather. But again, the thing I like about Joe is that he uses his brain…not JUST computer models. I’ve followed Joe’s work and forecasts for years. He’s uncanny in his ability to forecast. He is about 80% accurate. That’s really good folks! I’ll say this:it takes no talent to read a computer print out.

Joe spent 32 years at Accuweather and now runs his own private client services weather forecasting business. His reputation for making bold and accurate forecasts has landed him on major television programs including Fox News Live, ABC World News, The O’Reilly Factor, The Colbert Report, CBS’ The Early Show, Imus in the Morning, and several others. Joe graduated from Penn State and holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Meteorology.

Now, let me tell you this…the computer doesn’t agree with Joe about the winter weather. Let me show you the computer model of NOAA (National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecasting Model (version 2). That’s a long and fancy way of saying this the government’s model.

It’s showing BLOW TORCH for the winter (Dec/Jan/Feb). Here’s what Bastardi is saying:

That’s the absolute opposite. And here’s the snow forecast from Bastardi…

You look at North Carolina and you say, “Okay, 167% of average…what does that mean?” Well, we average about 12 inches of snow per year and so do the math…and the forecast means we should have around 20 inches of snow according to Bastardi. That’s a lot of snow!

Now, what’s the rationale? The biggest reason for Bastardi and those who look at the past to predict the future is the sea surface temperatures. See the temperature of the oceans… (Red is hot, blue is cold)…

See the cold water off the coast of Africa (right side of map)? That’s why there are no hurricanes right now and it’s why there won’t be that many this year. See the mixture of cool water and warm water off of the western South American coast. That’s a moderate El Nino coming on. When you have a big El Nino, that puts a ton of heat and moisture up into the Gulf of Mexico and that feeds into the southeast with a warm/moist winter. But, if the water is a mixture of warm/cold…then it’s a moderate El Nino and that’s enough moisture to open up the Gulf in the winter…but, not so hot that it overwhelms the pattern. So, if you’re a snow lover…this is a good pattern for winter weather.

So, let’s see… I wanted to see what the European model is showing for the winter… Why the European? Because models are only as good as the data you put into them and the Europeans typically have had better models than our NOAA models. Remember, I showed you the NOAA model for the winter earlier… Remember…warm…

Now see the European for the winter months…

Okay…what about our friends to the north. Here’s the Canadian Model…

Are you starting to get the picture? It looks like the majority of the models agree and based on Bastardi’s analog years…it might be a wintry winter (that’s redundant isn’t it).

Notice I said, “might.” After all, this forecast could always bust! It’s way out. It’s just August…but, this is a preliminary look and we’ll keep up with it and see what happens. As Bastardi says, ” Enjoy the weather, because it’s the only weather you’ve got.”

Here’s this week’s Two-Minute Tuesday about the failure of Socialism. I did this TMT for the generation of young people who are starting to believe the lie that socialism is a good thing. It’s not. And contrary to those who misquote the Bible, Socialism is not a Biblical principle. The Biblical principle is free-will offerings to love and help others…not “forced” sharing. Take a look… “Why Socialism Doesn’t Work.”

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLytmbmo0N3l0P2F1dG9wbGF5PXRydWUmYnJhbmRpbmc9dHJ1ZSZlbWJlZD10cnVl

Kevin

 

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All Wound Up

Here I am after midnight and I’m all wound up. I’ve been working for the last two days on the Iron Men Conference and I really believe it’s going to be good. Iron Men was very special in my life for almost 6 years. Every Wednesday our group met. But, the church grew so large, that I couldn’t do it any longer. Here’s a picture of the last day of Iron Men.

As I’ve been preparing and working on the conference for August 3rd, the Lord has touched my heart and I’m excited to see what He’s going to do to encourage other men and their sons, friends, coworkers, buddies, etc. It will be at 6:30 in the MPBC Reach Center. You can click her to register (so we’ll have enough refreshments): http://www.mpbc.ws/signuptable/ We’ve got over 150 signed up now!

I’m staying by myself at a small condo on Beech Mountain that a friend has allowed me to use. I’ve only done this twice in my 13 years of preaching. I need to do it more often. But, I feel guilty for not being at home helping out. But, I knew I needed to get away for a couple of days to really lock in on what the Lord wants for the men.

I’ve not budged other than to go to a small store and by some bologna, salsa, a couple of peaches and pizza. I know! Not very healthy! But, I did get on an elliptical last night for 30 minutes.

Look what I saw from my window. See the four deer…

I mentioned going to the local store. It’s Fred’s Mercantile. It’s truly an old-timey General Store. Well, right in front of it…this caught my eye.

That’s an official NOAA weather collection rain gauge. How about that! I’ve never seen one of those. Pretty cool, huh!

Beech Mountain is such a pretty place…

I snapped that picture with those gorgeous Black-Eyed-Susans on the way back from Fred’s (with my bologna in hand). Ha! That’s Ski Beech in the background. It’s amazing! It was 89 degrees when I left home. It was 81 degrees in Boone. Oh…can you tell I was driving through Boone…

And then I got to Beech and it was 73 degrees. Amazing! A full 16 degrees cooler at the elevation of 5,500 feet. My house is 1,300. Boone is 3,300. Truly phenomenal what elevation does to the temperatures. Speaking of temps… It’s going to be cooler for the rest of the summer according to the Climate Forecasting System Model.

No more “Dog Days” of summer for us! By the way, I learned something about “Dog Days.” They aren’t what you think. According to Brad Panovich, weather forecaster from Charlotte, here is a correct understanding of “Dog Days:”

“The dog days of summer are upon us, and you might think that they have something to do with hot and humid weather. Well, that isn’t exactly where the term originated from. The dog days of summer are actually July 3rd through August 11th.  

The Heat of 2 stars?

Those days are the 20 days before and 20 days after the “Dog” star Sirius rises and falls in conjunction with the sun. Sirius is the brightest star in the constellations Canis Major. The ancient Romans believed that its heat added to the heat of the sun, creating a stretch of hot and humid weather. During the time between July and August, the “dog” star rising with our sun made the ancients think the heat of two stars where making us hotter. In modern times we know that there is no heat generated from this very distant start, but the term stuck. So even in modern times, we consider the hot and muggy time of the summer between late July and mid-August as the dog days of summer.” http://wxbrad.com/dog-days-of-summer-arent-what-you-might-think/ 

You learn something new every day!

You know, I’ve only been gone two days. (I’ll be heading back today, Thursday), but I still miss my family. Truly, I’m a family man. I really love being with my bride, children and grandchildren. So, I’ve sent them several texts…including this one of me blowing a kiss.

Yes, I’m goofy! I know it! Last week we went up on our little mountain, Rendezvous (elevation 2,400 feet) for a picnic… (And yes, it’s noticeably cooler up there than at my house at 1,300 feet, even though we are only a 3 minute drive from the bottom of the mountain. It’s about a 10 minute drive up a gravel road to the gate.

That’s looking back southwest toward my home, just beyond CC Hayes Road. Gorgeous!

Speaking of gorgeous… Kandace and Clark have picked their venue for their wedding next April.

That’s Fussell Farm in Wilbar, NC. http://www.fussellfarmvenue.com.  www.facebook.com/fussellfarmvenue/  It’s about 15-20 minutes from our house and it’s absolutely stunning! It’s a smaller venue and Kandace and Clark will be inviting folks who have meant a lot to them in their lives and has made a direct impact on their lives. I hope folks will understand that not everyone we know can be invited. We’re so excited for them!

Well, it’s 12:30 am and I’m tired now. I guess I’ve finally wound down. So, I’m going to hit the sack. I’ll be back at it shortly!

Blessings to you all!

Kevin

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I’m asked often, “What is the reason your church has grown so much?” I respond, “Well, first of all, it’s not MY church.” I say that in a kind way…because folks don’t mean it in a negative way. It’s just the way we talk about churches. But, then I hasten to say, “All I can say is the Lord has chosen to have favor on us and bless us.” Yet, now I add this: “But, the truth is I do believe I can point to something that we’re doing that’s pretty much a guarantee of the Lord’s blessings… GOING! Going and sharing the Gospel. Missions.”

I am convinced the Lord blesses churches who “gather for the going.” My job as a pastor/elder is to “equip the saints for the works of ministry” (Ephesians 4:11-16). Honestly, many churches tithe to themselves. Most of what they do is inward focused. Yet, Jesus told us to: “GO and make disciples of all nations…” So, we “gather for the going.” That’s got to be the goal. Why? Because Jesus’ command (not suggestion)…but command…is to GO!!

Last night we had a mission fundraiser called our “Cake Auction.” We raised over $7,000 for the mission work we’ll be doing this year. It was a fabulous time of fellowship and laughter and joy of being together and loving on one another and knowing that every dime that was raised will go to sharing the Gospel!

It’s always a blast making the cakes. Andrew made a cake all by himself (well…with a wee-bit of help from his momma) and it was delicious!

Check out this cake made by the Jason and Kristina Shropshire family. Can you figure it out…

Yep, it’s the “Lion and the Lamb” cake, representing the fact that Jesus is the “Lion of Judah” and the “Lamb of God.” I’ve been using that in the messages from Matthew 24-25 and Revelation. See this from our website:

Pretty awesome! We had some fabulous cakes and a WONDERFUL time!

Next up is our Soccer League that begins on Saturday! We have close to 200 kids signed up and about 50-60% of those (in my estimation) are in families that don’t have a church home. Would you pray for us as we kick off on Saturday? The weather looks to be perfect! Thank you Lord!

But, don’t get used to it. What? Yep, I believe after a brief “mild-up,” we’ll see cooler than normal temperatures lasting into the last 2 weeks of the month and probably into the first half of May. It’s really been a roller coaster ride. And this past winter proves that. See this graph…

I know it’s kind of “busy,” but you get the gist. We had a warm December overall. Yet, it snowed 7″ on December 8th. Then January was cold and February felt like “Spring had sprung.” However, March smacked us in the face. More snow. Huge flakes…

April will be much cooler than normal. Yep…big time roller coaster ride! Watch out for Sunday! There will be tons of potential in the atmosphere for bad storms. You’ll see this in the Plains today and then moving to Alabama and Georgia tomorrow and Saturday.

Someone asked me a few days ago: Do you do Spiritual Gifts tests for your members? I said, “No, because that’s between the person and the Lord. I see no spiritual gifts test in Scripture.” And what do you know…just a couple of days later I saw that Dr. David Black, professor of Greek and New Testament at Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary posted this on his blog http://www.daveblackonline.com:

9:50 AM “In your opinion, what’s the best book on spiritual gifts?” A student asked me this question after my NT class yesterday. That’s easy. Kenneth Hemphill’s Spiritual Gifts: Empowering the New Testament Church. That said, I cautioned my student to be aware of two things: (1) the lists of NT gifts are not exhaustive, and (2) none of the gifts is defined per se. Then I asked him this question: “What, in your thinking, is the difference between a ‘natural ability’ and a ‘spiritual gift’?” I had a reason for asking him that question. You see, in the end I think there’s very little difference between a so-called natural ability and a spiritual gift.

When you become a follower of Jesus, two things happen. First, you acknowledge that every one of your so-called “natural abilities” is really a gift from the gracious hand of God. And secondly, you now employ those gifts in His service and for His glory alone. One of the gravest dangers of doing a spiritual gifts inventory on people is that it can all too often produce carbon copies of a stereotypical archetype. Instead, let’s ask people, “What do you love to do? What is your passion in life? What is it that you do that causes you to feel God’s pleasure?” Psychologists call this “self-discernment,” but for Christians, self-discernment is always connected to our relationship with God. The more we become like Jesus, the more we become authentically ourselves. What incredibly important theology. The path to self-fulfillment is simply discovering who our Creator designed us to be. (Side note. Here’s a quick test to determine if you’re doing the rightthing with your life and not merely a good thing. Do the satisfactions of your work outweigh the stresses? If your vocation is born out of a relationship with Jesus, then it will be a pleasure both for you and for others. After all, Jesus said, “My yoke is easy, and My burden is light.” So what are we complaining about?)

Our chapel speaker on Tuesday drove this point home. “Don’t waste your life! Don’t bury your God-given talents!” It’s simply too costly. So let’s give people the freedom to be what God wants them to be. The best we can do is give them Jesus, not a book about spiritual gifts. I have no confidence in Dave Black but I have every confidence in my Savior. He is utterly dependable, and if we look to Him, He will guide us in the right path for our lives. Trust me, no one wants to follow a fraud. Be who you are, the real you, the person God created you to be. The church is for real people with real families who lead real lives. And always remember the theology: Our true self emerges only from our uniqueness in Christ.

Amen Dr. Black!

So often I hear people say, “I can’t get plugged into my church.” Well, I don’t mean to be crass, but that’s your fault. It’s your church! Look and see what the church is doing and get involved. The reason you don’t feel plugged in is because you haven’t plugged in! Listen, people do what they want to do. If you have a heart to serve, you’ll serve. If you don’t, you won’t. So, plug-in! Go! Get moving!

Here’s this week’s Two-Minute Tuesday. Yes, yes, I know it’s NOT 2 minutes. I’m sorry. They usually never are! But, I try to keep them under 4 minutes…wink, wink. 🙂 This week’s TMT is about the task of not losing our kids. Should we teach them the 10 Commandments? Yes. Should we tell them there are 66 books in the Bible: 27 in the New Testament and 39 in the Old Testament? Yes. Should we teach them about David vs. Goliath and Daniel in the Lion’s Den and Jonah in the great fish? Yes. But, we must do more. We must give our young people a reason for their hope, beyond just memorizing facts and hearing wonderful stories. We must 1 Peter 3:15 this deal if we’re going to have young people who embrace the faith. Tell me…what do you see?

Take a look at this to find out…

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLyszd3l6cGpkP2JyYW5kaW5nPXRydWUmZW1iZWQ9dHJ1ZQ==

Kevin

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How’d I Do?

Do you go back and analyze your performance in your job or in your life? I do it all the time. That ten minute drive home from church each Sunday afternoon after three services can be excruciating. Why? Because I battle with the question: “How’d I do?” We all battle with self-doubt. We all struggle. We all have weaknesses. We all have strengths. I’ve learned to just be satisfied with doing my best. Yes, there are always things we can do better. But, if I’ve prepared, prayed and given my best, that’s all I can do. And that’s true of you!

Well, I was thinking about the winter weather and my little hobby of trying to forecast (even though I’m not a meteorologist). Well, “How’d I do?” Okay, let’s see…

I said all the way back in August…
“I’m a bit less bullish than their predicted 5 events and I will stick with 3-4 events and slightly above normal precipitation and cold… With all of this said, my “preliminary forecast” is for about 14″ of snow. That’s about 45% above average. However, if we get “the big one,” we could get that in one storm. I do believe we’ll have a warmer December to start…but, it should flip (if the Modoki pattern holds) by mid-to-late month into January. So, we’ll see. It’s always fun to try to predict these things. But, as we all know…only the Lord knows! 🙂
Well, we had a big snow in December of all things! 7″ on December 8th (again, that’s really early for that much snow) and another 1″ on Tuesday, December 12th. Then, we saw 4″ on Wed., Jan. 17th and about 1/4″ of ice/sleet on Sunday, Feb. 4th. So, in Kevin Brown’s back yard, I had a total of 12.25″ of snow, sleet and ice for the year. That’s pretty much right on average for us.
BUT, I thought we’d get more. And we didn’t. The pattern turned warm in February, which I said it would (remember the roller coaster that I talked about)…and it’s turned back colder again…even today. And we’ll have a close call Sunday/Sunday night. But, in essence, meteorological winter is over.

So, how’d I do in summary? Back in August I said we’d get around 14″ and then I got cold feet in October and backed off to 9-10″ (Oh ye of little faith, Kevin!) Well, the 12.25″ was a pretty decent forecast overall.

I’ll tell you what I’ll remember about this winter… It was how cold it was in January. Remember we had below freezing temps for almost 9 straight days. I will remember having to have the faucet dripping at night so the pipes wouldn’t freeze. And I bet your kids and grandkids will tell their kids and grandkids 40 years from now: “Boy it sure doesn’t get as cold as it did when I was little.” Ha ha!

I also said this back in August: “There again…western NC is close to the ‘dividing line’ of normal to above average precip.” And this is the map I showed…
And we were just outside that “Above Average” blue bubble. Now, I’m not bragging (that’s not very Christian), but I believe I did better than the computer models. Why? Because most models rely too much on La Niña versus El Niño. Truly, there are so many variable. There are no guarantees! Most winter outlooks are no better than the flip of a coin.
There are two guys who are the best: Joe Bastardi of weatherbell.com and Judah Cohen, who handles the AER Model below. He literally blew the models away (the American Models, the European-ECMWF, NOAA and the UK). The OBSERVATIONS map below show that the AER of Cohen’s was spot on. Well, I use Bastardi and Cohen because they don’t JUST rely on models. They use their brains and the past to forecast the future.

So, overall, I feel I did okay this year on the forecast, but I really did believe we’d have more snow in March and that just doesn’t seem to be likely now. So, you decide. I’m just thankful I’m not driving home from church or I’d be beating myself up.

Speaking of church… Last Wed. night, this couple sang in the old sanctuary (we call it the Prayer Chapel now)…

Yep, that’s husband wife team of Josh and Katy Isaacs. They did such a wonderful job. They sang a Dave Crowder song, “Come As You Are.” The lyrics are powerful…

Come out of sadness
From wherever you’ve been
Come broken hearted
Let rescue begin
Come find your mercy
Oh sinner come kneel
Earth has no sorrow
That heaven can’t heal
Earth has no sorrow
That heaven can’t heal

So lay down your burdens
Lay down your shame
All who are broken
Lift up your face
Oh wanderer come home
You’re not too far
So lay down your hurt
Lay down your heart
Come as you are

There’s hope for the hopeless
And all those who’ve strayed
Come sit at the table
Come taste the grace
There’s rest for the weary
Rest that endures
Earth has no sorrow
That heaven can’t cure

So lay down your burdens
Lay down your shame
All who are broken
Lift up your face
Oh wanderer come home
You’re not too far
So lay down your hurt
Lay down your heart
Come as you are

Come as you are
Fall in his arms
Come as you are
There’s joy for the morning
Oh sinner be still
Earth has no sorrow
That heaven can’t heal
Earth has no sorrow
That heaven can’t heal

So lay down your burdens
Lay down your shame
All who are broken
Lift up your face
Oh wanderer come home
You’re not too far
So lay down your hurt
Lay down your heart
Come as you are
Come as you are
Come as you are

Josh has been through a lot in his life and hearing and seeing him singing with Katy was so touching in my heart. I’m used to seeing Katy sing. She’s excellent. I mean that! Not just because she’s my daughter… It’s the truth. She’s gifted. But, to see Josh (who really can sing) pouring out his heart in the song…with those powerful words… Well, it truly touched me.

Folks, “How’d You Do?” Yes, ask those questions. Get better. But, also…don’t dwell on it. Don’t dwell on your past. It can hold you back and hold you down. Paul said, “This one thing I do…” Preach more? No. Start more churches? No. He said, “Forgetting the past…”

“But one thing I do: forgetting what lies behind and straining forward to what lies ahead.” Philippians 3:13b

How’d I do? Okay. And so are you. Keep moving… Keep striving and keep straining to what lies ahead in Christ and you and I will do just fine!

Kevin

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Does It Snow More Today or Decades Ago?

Anyone who knows me knows how much I love the weather. One of the reasons I love it so much is the fact that humanity can do nothing about it. God controls the weather patterns. He allows what He allows and that’s that.

One of the people I love to follow is Van Denton. He is the Fox8 (WGHP) weather forecaster out of Greensboro. He has done some phenomenal work in studying winter weather and snow. People today seem to think that we got a lot more snow back in the 1950’s than now. Well, the truth is: that isn’t so. Van did the work to prove the point (via Greensboro data). Yes, the top 3 snowiest decades were (in order):

  1. 1960’s
  2. 1980’s
  3. 1970’s

But, the 1950’s were not as snowy has we’ve seen in this decade. The 1950’s were like the 1990’s (a snow drought).

See the chart below… You’ll note we’re currently averaging 8.5″ of snow for the decade, which is considerably more than the 5.7″ average of the 1950’s and the 7.3″ average of even the 1930’s.

In fact, according to Van: “The Piedmont-Triad is at the midway point of our snow season. We average around 8.5 inches of snow each season (normal through today is 4.3 inches). We have already had 9.7 inches and still have Feb. and March ahead of us. We also RANK ahead of Bluefield, WV for snow so far this season. Even ahead of Wash. DC.”

Yes, it’s been a snowy winter for sure. At my house, we’ve seen (thus far), 7″ on December 8th (that’s really early for that much snow) and another 1″ on Tuesday, December 12th. We saw 4″ on Wed., Jan. 17th and about 1/4″ of ice/sleet this past Sunday (Feb. 4th) and we’ve still got the back half of winter to go. So, in Kevin Brown’s back yard, I’ve had a total of 12.25″ of snow, sleet and ice for the year. That’s pretty much right on average for us.

Do you remember me showing you the Farmer’s Almanac prediction for winter?

They’ve been right in a lot of ways (particularly in our region). But, it has been a lot colder in the upper mid-west than they said and much dryer out west. Yet, when making a national forecast, they’ve really done quite well.

Well, what about the rest of winter? According to the National Weather Service, they’re predicting we’ll have below average temperatures for the month of February as a whole. See below… Follow the dotted, orange line and you’ll see it’s below the average of 50-52 degrees for highs and the blue, dotted line goes below the average as well.

I believe this is pretty accurate. We’ll see it warm up again (we’ve been on a roller coaster, can you tell) over the next couple of weeks and be around average or just above average. But, by the time we get to the end of the third week of the month, we should turn colder again. In fact, March is looking to be potentially cold for the first two weeks of the month. And you know what March snows can be around here! They can be our biggest of the season!

I said (back in August) we’d get around 14″ and then I got cold feet in October and backed off to 9-10″ (Oh ye of little faith, Kevin!). We’re already over that (as I said) of 12.25″. So, this looks to be a big year for us. Will you remember it? I bet you will. I bet you will remember it being below freezing for almost 9 straight days. I bet you will remember having to have the faucet drip at night so the pipes wouldn’t freeze. And I bet that your kids and grandkids will tell their kids and grandkids 40 years from now: “Boy it sure doesn’t get cold and snow like it used to.”

Well, hopefully, they’ll be a “Van Denton” of that day who will set the record straight with the actual records. 🙂

Kevin

PS Please pray for Andrew. He’ll be having his 6th surgery on his feet on Wednesday at the Shriner’s Hospital in Greenville, SC. It’s been a long pull for Andrew with his club feet (from birth). He’s come a long way! This was him before surgery several years ago.

So, this ain’t his first rodeo with all of this! They will be taking the screws out of his ankles/feet. And (Lord willing), this should be the last surgery! Thank you for your prayers! We take him down in the morning to Greenville. We’ve got to hit the road just after 6 am. So, what am I still doing up! 🙂

Kevin

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More Snow!

This winter has turned into an “old-fashioned” winter. If you talk to some old-timers, they’ll tell you, “Yep, reminds me of when I was young.” The truth is, the weather runs in cycles. Not just in season or years, but even decades and 1/2 centuries. We’re seeing this occurring. And it’s happened before. Nothing new here. And certainly not the hyped-Global Warming alarmists you keep hearing in the media. For more information on that, here’s this week’s TMT:

“I’m a Scientist, End of Discussion.” http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLytqdmRnand4P2F1dG9wbGF5PXRydWUmYnJhbmRpbmc9dHJ1ZSZlbWJlZD10cnVl

The science is not settled on the weather or climate and the issue of abortion (with the blessing of ultrasounds) has shown us that babies aren’t just “blobs of tissue.” If the Supreme Court had the science of today (with ultrasounds), I’m convinced Roe. v. Wade would have been determined very differently.

Here’s the official reason giving for why we got more snow…

The truth is: the Weather Models couldn’t pick up on the lift in the atmosphere. Brad Panovich, meteorologist out of Charlotte, says it this way: “Upper low and jetstream are starting to enhance the lift and coupled with the very cold air fluffing up the snow. Totals are going to over produce by quite a few inches. Some locations will be close to 7-8″ in spots.”

Whatever the “official reason,” we know the Lord is in control. We can make forecasts all we want, but at the end of it all…He decides! 🙂

Great fun! Katy, holding Evie, Charlotte and Andrew…

Here’s Clara and Charlotte. That’s crazy! It was Clara who was that little just yesterday, it seems!

Down the hill they g0! Andrew and Charlotte! Zoom!!!

And then the task of getting all of those snow clothes off in the basement!

Snow! You gotta love it! Or hate it! For me…I love it! It slows down the world and we need more of that!

Kevin

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