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FaithFest, Hurricanes, Florida

What a week! FaithFest was absolutely fantastic! To say that it was a success would be an understatement. The Wilkes Journal Patriot covered it here: http://www.journalpatriot.com/news/a-festival-based-on-faith/article_6c6a3010-8cb9-11e7-b683-03ae475c9443.html

To think that little ole Wilkes County could host a festival like this was amazing! Crowd estimates were around 8,000 people! Wow! For the first year that’s tremendous!! Truly, some of the best Christian artists in the country were on the stage at Wilkes Community College Saturday. The Gospel was preached and lives touched for all eternity! Now, I’m a bit biased because this was the vision of my brother-in-law Craig Church of Craig Church Ministries: https://craigchurchministries.org. Craig had a vision and the Lord saw it through! Our local businesses followed that vision and made it happen! Praise the Lord for Christian businessmen and businesswomen who love the work of the Lord and His kingdom and used their businesses as a conduit for the spread of the Gospel of Jesus Christ. https://faithfestnc.com/#sponsors

I must say I am biased in another way too. Kandace was one of the singer/musicians!

Man was I nervous. I tried not to let her know that I was, but I was. I was 10 times more nervous for her than I ever am when I’m in front of a large crowd. I guess that has to do with being a parent. Yes, I’m biased, but she did a fantastic job! You can watch a piece of her set here: https://www.facebook.com/johnlewismusic/videos/1874883719195555/ and here: https://www.facebook.com/FaithFestNC/videos/699993226838023/.

My favorite photo of Kandace was from Carly Blevins…

I love the smile! That’s joy! She had prayed and prepared and the Lord used my girl. I write this with a lump in my throat! I love you Kandace and I praise the Lord for your willingness to allow your life as a 19-year old young lady to be used for the kingdom! I thank you for being willing to stand for the things of Christ in a world that doesn’t necessarily revere the things of Christ as it once did. I thank you for being willing to put yourself on the line for Jesus! And “Thank you Lord! I’m so grateful for my girl.” As the Apostle John said: “I have no greater joy than to see my children walking in the truth.” 3 John 4.

Next year it’s looking like FaithFest might be a two-day event. Friday evening and Saturday. That would be tremendous! Thanks Craig and to all who made it happen! I’m really thankful too for our church, MPBC, that participated with so many workers, volunteers and helpers! Everywhere I looked I saw MPBC people working!

Speaking of working. There is so much to be done in Houston and the surrounding towns. It will literally take years to rebuild. My heart and my wallet goes out to those folks. I encourage you to consider helping our neighbors in Texas and I know of no better group to do that through than our own Samaritan’s Purse. https://www.samaritanspurse.org/disaster/hurricane-harvey/?utm_source=HurricaneHarvey2017Email1&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=m_YHHR-17E1&utm_content=Donate_Button

Did you see there is another one brewing in the Atlantic? It’s already been named: Irma. And she’s a powerhouse. She’s already a category 3. And wouldn’t you know it… Right now she’s headed for Florida.

Yes, she could go north and out to sea or even into the Gulf of Mexico. Let’s pray she goes north and curves out to sea. I’m praying that for our country and I’m praying that for my family. We’re heading to Florida at the end of next week for vacation and I’d really like NOT to have to come home early.

Here’s this week’s TMT: “The Envelope Please.”

https://subsplash.com/mpbc/v/wt4bctq

Kevin

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Early Winter Forecast 2017-18

Yes, believe it or not I’m getting people asking me about the winter weather forecast for the upcoming winter. Normally, I put out my thoughts around September, but I’ll give a pre-preview and then finalize it in October. So, here goes.

Let’s look at last winter. It was an El Nino winter. It was even stronger than predicted. The average snow for our area in Wilkesboro is 9.7″ per year. I thought we’d have at least that and perhaps above. So, how did we do? Well, we had 8″ of snow on Friday/Saturday, January 8/9. That was our big storm and our main storm. We had a second snow of 1″ on Sunday, March 12th. So, we were slightly below normal with 9″ compared to the average of 9.7″. Therefore, we ended up having what I would call a “slight bust” for the year on the forecast. Again, the El Nino was stronger and the storms we had were more “wet” than snowy.

Now what is El Nino? Well, it’s part of the driving mechanism for our winters here in the southeast. In fact, I believe the main driver of much of our weather comes from that part of the world. I’m talking about the warmth of the water off the South American west coast. If that water is warm, it’s called El Nino. If it’s cooler, it’s called La Nina.

There are other very complicated factors that play into our weather for the winter such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (called the NAO). If we get into what is called the “negative phase” of the NAO (which is a big blocking High Pressure over Greenland and we can get moisture coming up from the Gulf (driven by the warm waters of the Pacific), BANG…that’s our recipe for winter weather.

Here’s the difference between the negative and positive phases of the NAO.

You can see that the Negative NAO makes it cold and snowy in the southeast.

Currently, the weather patterns have been up and down throughout the summer. We’ve had periods of wet and dry. Remember July was hot and dry and recently we’ve gone through cooler, wetter weather. This seems to be something we’ll see through the fall. September looks to be cooler than normal and then warmer for October and November. Here’s the Weather Channel forecast for September:

Now, no one is putting out a forecast for December and beyond at this point except for the Almanacs. One of my favorites is the Old Farmer’s Almanac. They’ve been forecasting the weather since 1818 using a formula that’s “secret” and by using the “signs of nature.” One of the things they look at is the Moon and its motions because of its influence on the tides. They say, “Ocean tides can be accurately predicted, so part of our formula relies on the belief that we can line up certain weather patterns with a specific position of the Moon in its orbit…”

They are predicting “above normal” precipitation that looks “wet, wintry, and white.” They have noted the dates of “January 20-23, February 4-7 & 16-19, and March 1-3 & 20-23 along the Atlantic Seaboard for some heavy precipitation.” Now, to me, this isn’t a stretch. Truly, we get the majority of our winter weather in Jan-Mar. January 20th through February 10th is the coldest part of the winter. So, to guess that we could have snow during that period is not that risky. However, for them to say that we’ll potentially have 5 events is pretty aggressive. Normally, we’ll have 2-3 events in a normal winter. Here’s their chart…

Sandi Duncan, Managing Editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, stands by the publication’s accuracy track record. “Our predictions over time have been 80% to 85% accurate and continue to be a valuable planning tool for the year ahead.”

I’m a bit less bullish than their predicted 5 events and I will stick with 3-4 events and slightly above normal precipitation and cold with a moderate to weak El Nino. Which is actually good. You say, “It is? I thought a strong El Nino is what we wanted…the warmer the water the better.” No, that’s not true. For snow lovers, we want a moderate El Nino because if the water is too warm it makes the storms too warm and we can’t get snow. That happened three times last year. We were plenty wet…just too warm. The moderate El Nino makes the water not quite as warm. Think of Goldilocks… We want it “just right.”

This “just right” for us is called a “Modoki El Nino” or a “moderate” El Nino.

I know this is technical…but, what you are seeing above is a moderate El Nino. It’s barely above the Zero line and that’s good for snow lovers. Here’s what a weak El Nino does for us…

What forecasters try to do is to look at what are called “analog years” and that is where they look at the past and see which winter in the past might be most similar to the upcoming one and then peg it to that winter. The winter they are looking at is 2010. Remember that winter? It snowed at Christmas. Clara and Andrew were little tykes then…

The snow was majestic as we walked up to mom and dad’s to celebrate…

Will that happen this year? Honestly, there’s no way to predict that. It would be a wild guess, no matter what anyone tells you. It’s such an anomaly here. White Christmases are very rare. I’ve seen two in my lifetime of almost 50 years.

With all of this said, my “preliminary forecast” is for about 14″ of snow. That’s about 45% above average. However, if we get “the big one,” we could get that in one storm. I do believe we’ll have a warmer December to start…but, it should flip (if the Modoki pattern holds) by mid-to-late month into January. So, we’ll see. It’s always fun to try to predict these things. But, as we all know…only the Lord knows! 🙂

We had a great week with our family. Josh celebrated his 29th birthday (he’s getting old isn’t he?).

Charlotte was so excited! Josh is a fantastic son-in-law! Truly, he’s more like a son to me than a son-in-law. He loves my daughter well and he is a wonderful father to Charlotte and Evelyn… That’s his hand holding Evelyn as they play…

We also celebrated mom and dad’s 50th wedding anniversary!

What a testimony of longevity in this day and age where folks throw in the towel so easily. Marriage takes work, folks. It’s that plain and simple. It’s been said, “Marriage is often the anvil the Lord uses to make us into the people he desires.”  I’ve been married almost 27 years and I would agree with that. I’m so hard-headed! I’m a blessed man! If you are struggling in your marriage, you might consider this…

https://www.thecouragecourses.com/p/109320

I love Kirk Cameron and this is an online course that you can do in your home. Marriage takes work, nurture and time. Way too many people treat their marriage like a car they never maintenance and have the oil changed. If you do that with a car, it will leave you stranded. Do it with a marriage, well…expect it to leave you stranded, disillusioned and joyless. Invest in your marriage and talk to each other. Spend time in prayer together. Do that would you? Tonight? Just hold hands and say a pray before you go to sleep. Do that each night and I promise you it will revolutionize your marriage. Why? Ever tried to pray mad? It’s hard! Knowing you’re going to pray every night means you work, talk and sort things out. Yep…that’s the ticket. Talk! Pray together. Grow! 🙂

Here’s a family picture at mom and dad’s as we celebrated…

Something else that happened last week, is that a dog just showed up on our property. I really believe someone set him out.

As you can tell, he’s now a Brown. 🙂 His name is Jack and he’s cross between a Jack Russell and a Chihuahua. He’s about 6 months old. The kids love him! I do too! Our cat, Wendy, died about a month ago. She was 16. I think the Lord knew we could take care of him. He looked to have been abused and he was pretty sick. He’s on antibiotics now and is like night and day versus last week. He’s running, jumping, playing! He’s a dude!

Hey, hey…it’s finally here! Tomorrow is Faithfest!!! Kandace will be singing at it! What an opportunity!

I’m really excited about that and about Faithfest! What a blessing to have this event in our county! Thanks to Craig Church Ministries for putting this together. Will you pray with me that lives will be saved and Christians touched and strengthened? It should be a fabulous day! Kandace sings at 3:25. You can still buy tickets at the gate tomorrow for $25. It all begins at 2:30. Here’s the list of events… https://faithfestnc.com/#schedule

I’ve been teaching Andrew how to hit a golf ball. He can whack one about 85 yards.

That’s pretty good for a little guy like him!

Take a look:

Here’s this week’s Two-Minute Tuesday, “The Real Reason We Don’t Read the Bible.” https://subsplash.com/mpbc/v/ek4kwes

Kevin

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What a combination! Basketball and Snow!! And both are coming this week it appears. We know the Basketball is here. The ACC tournament is in full swing, but what about the weather? Well, it’s a bit early…but it appears we have a decent shot at some March Snow this weekend and that will only increase the “March Madness!”

Here’s the latest forecast from our United States model called the GFS.

That’s right! We could see some snow on Saturday night and Sunday morning. We’ll see. A forecaster in Charlotte is only rating the chance at 10% right now…

The system is still off the west coast and that’s why the confidence is so low. Honestly, we won’t know until tomorrow when it gets onto the continental US that the models can really pick up on what’s going to potentially happen.

My favorite forecaster is Van Denton and this is what’s on his Facebook page. The top one is the European Model and the bottom one is the GFS (US Model).

Van’s Post:

2:40 pm Wed March 8, 2017 Feel free to SHARE

Still way too early to have a good fix on specifics for Saturday night/Sunday morning, but here is what the 2 models show that go out that far. The GFS has lowered amounts from the past 2 days and last night and the Euro has remained about the same.

We expect colder air to push in from the north on Saturday and an area of low pressure to arrive from the south on Saturday night and pass to our east on Sunday. This combination would produce the snow chance that the models are showing. The ground is warm and that would cut into amounts that we see accumulate. One thing to note about the models, they show the amount of snow that actually falls based on it all sticking. With a warm ground, much of it would melt and depth would likely remain below what a model actually shows.

By tomorrow night the energy will reach the mainland (currently over the Pacific Ocean). Once it reaches land, we will get better data from Weather balloon sounds which take measurements within the storm. Then we will have a much better idea what to actually expect from this system. We usually start putting out OUR forecast for snow amounts within 48 hours.

So, we’ll see. Either way…it’s kind of exciting. I am reminded of the Blizzard of 1993 that occurred during the ACC Tournament. Wow! That was something! Here’s the snowfall map from that one…

We had that 22″ amount at my house. Unreal! Mt. Mitchell got 5 feet!!!

This was a picture from Eastern Tennessee…

I remember the snow drifted up to four feet in some places around the house. It was truly an amazing event!

Well, you can be sure we’re not looking at anything like that…but, nonetheless, the timing of the event being March 11 and 12 this Saturday and Sunday is very similar to 1993 in timing.

So, enjoy the weekend! I will! Snow and Basketball! Wow! What a potential combination!

This week’s Two-Minute Tuesday, “Children in Big Church? It’s up to over 4,300 views. Amazing!

http://subsplash.com/mpbc/v/ozgx3o5

Kevin

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Snow!

There’s just something about it! I love it!

Snow!

img_5234

It’s an amazing thing! It stops us in our tracks and for that reason, I’m glad. I’m glad we get the chance to slow down and take our foot off the gas.

Last Friday night, we watched the snow coming down through the lights I have in the front yard. It was so awe-inspiring to watch the swirls of snow.

15844038_1354232977974738_6144785747130890245_o

It’s an amazing thing. Snow must form on particles of dust in the atmosphere and fall through the sky to the earth.

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And in that process, it can’t go through a layer of warm air or it will turn into sleet (snow that’s melted and refrozen). When it does hit the ground, it piles up and then we have fun. Or at least my family does.

15871940_1354779514586751_9186208708889712835_n

Here were the official snowfall estimates from the weather service:

15936780_1354777111253658_9101253779892252942_o

Many have asked me: “Which forecaster was most accurate for Wilkes County?” Well, from the beginning (about 36 hours out from the event), Matthew East of Asheville, NC seemed to have it nailed down the best. It wasn’t perfect (because no one saw the warm nose of air coming into the Charlotte and Raleigh areas), but East was the most accurate in my estimation.

15800605_1353756748022361_2026836533461462142_o

We got close to 8″ at my house. 7 and 5/8″ to be exact. Some of the most reliable forecasters only had Wilkes getting a dusting to an inch. However, the system moved further north and further west than anticipated by most of the models.

According to the models at a time period of about 36 hours from the event, the NAM hit Wilkesboro the best of the other models.

15895659_1353385378059498_2459213497755655190_oBut, even it was too low. And it was a bust for Asheboro, and Raleigh and points east. Even the Weather Channel missed it. They sent Jim Cantore to Raleigh, only to have him leave and end up at Virginia Beach. Point being: IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST SNOWSTORMS IN NORTH CAROLINA with any real accuracy for everyone in the state. Why? Because our state provides such a transition zone.

Many are asking: “Are we done with winter?” Nope! We’ll get a reprieve for the rest of January, though. It will warm up to near 70 by Friday. Next week and the following week will be above average, but as we get into February, the roller coast ride will bring us back to Winter. We’ll turn cold again and potentially have more wintry precipitation. This winter is shaping up to be more of an old-fashioned winter where you have the ups and downs. It’s crazy that Reidsville hit -1, (a record low for the date), yesterday morning and will be at 68 on Friday. That’s crazy!!

I hate we missed church, but it was just too dangerous. The parking lot was a skating rink and the temps were just too cold. I’m looking forward to seeing everyone tomorrow night, though! I just love our church family, because we are “forever family” in Christ.

Congratulations to Clemson:

unknownI stayed up and watched the game between Clemson and Alabama for the 2017 National Championship. However, they need to start announcing that the championship game is on two days, not one. The game didn’t end until 12:30 am, so they should have said, “National Championship game 1.9.17 and 1.10.17.” These TV networks are crazy. They keep the East Coast up so late! UGH!!

See that coach, Dabo Swinney? He praise the Lord all last night. So did #4 Deshaun Watson and #13 Hunter Renfro. They all gave the Lord the praise and the credit last night! Praise the Lord! What a tremendous platform for the Gospel!

Speaking of tremendous people, I want to plug my good friend and mentor, Dr. David Black.

dave-and-me

His wife Becky Lynn (Mama B to me), died just over 3 years ago of cancer. Dr. Black will be running his first marathon this May. He’s calling it…

pigginout

“Piggin’ Out for a Cancer Cure.” Don’t you love the picture!! I do! Perhaps you would consider joining me in giving in honor of Becky Lynn. You can do so here: http://pigginout.kintera.org/faf/home/default.asp?ievent=1169252

Dave will be running all 26.1 miles and I’m proud of him and I’m so grateful for all that he does and for what he’s doing to help UNC Hospitals to find a cure endometrial cancer as he runs in the Flying Pig Marathon in Cincinnati, Ohio. http://flyingpigmarathon.com

Here’s today’s Two-Minute Tuesday.

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A White Christmas?

Short answer…

No. Not likely this year at all.

Not in North Carolina at least. The weather pattern will go from being bitterly cold, (as I mentioned a while back), with even a bit of frozen precipitation potentially, (early Saturday morning), to a more relaxed and warmer pattern toward the last week of the month (week of Christmas and into the first of January). This is the December 21-27 outlook:

814temp-new1

There will be no white Christmas with that look for sure. It’s just too warm. We’ll be in the low to mid 50’s with that look, about 5-7 degrees above normal. We will still have a wetter period, but it will be just wet, not frozen. See below.

814prcp-new1

What’s going to be interesting is what happens after the first of the year. There is a fight in the upper atmosphere over the Arctic and into Siberia. Where is the coldest air going to lodge? Will it be over Asia or will it be over Canada? Last week and this week (coming Thursday/Friday) the coldest air has split toward North America and NOT Siberia.

But, what about the rest of winter? Will it split off and we get what’s called a “polar vortex split,” where a piece of the polar vortex rotates our way (like we will experience Thursday/Friday of this week)? Or will we have more of a zonal (west to east) flow of weather from Pacific to Atlantic. For our good winters, (if you like snow), we need a south to north (active southern jet stream) that ejects moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Our best snows come up I-85 from Atlanta. It’s too early to tell. I’d say it’s 50/50 on whether it will be a colder and more snowy winter versus warmer and drier. We’ll know a lot more in another couple of weeks and I’ll update you. 🙂

I continue to be concerned about what’s taught in our colleges. I talked about that today in my Two-Minute Tuesday. I wrote this preface on Facebook…

“Progressive Liberal Christianity-Like My Loose Treadmill” Forgive me for the length of this video…it’s 6 minutes. However it is critical. The video will describe what some are seeking to do to subvert orthodox Christianity today. To change the doctrines and orthodox meanings of the basic and foundational tenets of Scripture, (doctrine that has been accepted and practiced for centuries), to a loose theology that perverts these doctrines by watering them down or changing them altogether, is seriously and fearfully damning to many unsuspecting and very impressionable souls. What is more shameful is that this type of perverted theology is being taught under the guise of “Christianity” to our young people in many of our colleges and universities and even some churches. What is to follow is one example from the University of Southern California. Thanks for watching and spreading the word! 

http://subsplash.com/mpbc/v/njqvfqg

Have a great week!

Kevin

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Do you struggle with focus? Are you doing what you are supposed to be doing? Do you know what that is? Do you understand God’s will for your life?

I’ve written extensively about these topics in the past and I’ll not go into the details again here. However, you can simply type “God’s will” into the search box above and see past posts. Yet, I bring up those questions of “focus” to focus us on what’s important.

What is important in your life? Perhaps these (in no certain order):

  • Family
  • God
  • Health
  • Money
  • Relationships

All of these areas require focus, do they not? You and I have to be focused, for instance, on not overspending if we want to see that we don’t end up out of money and broke. Do you check your bank account often? I do. I do that so that I stay focused and I can invest money where it’s needed the most and can be used for eternal things. I’m trying to be focused.

Let’s take another area of life. Let’s pick “Family.” Are you focused? How is your relationship with your spouse? Your children? It’s mostly going to be a function of time. Yep…time. It’s impossible for us to grow our relationship with anyone unless we spend time with them. I think you’d agree. So, do you talk? Do you communicate with your family? Do you have “down time” where you can chat with your family members? If we don’t make time to do so, it will never happen. The truth is: we DO NOT have time to develop relationships in our lives…we have to MAKE TIME! It’s got to be intentional.

So, how is it with your kids, mom and dad? How is it going for them in their lives? Do you have teenagers? The only way you are going to really know how things are going with them is to spend time with them and verbally talk. Oh, I know you can read their tweets and see what they post on Instagram. But, it’s got to be more than that! If that’s how you communicate, then you are no more to them than an acquaintance who happens to live in the same house.

I read an article recently about why our kids walk away from them faith. It’s excellent. http://theaquilareport.com/why-christian-kids-leave-the-faith/

Bottom line: we’ve got to be spending intentional time. Focused time. If you look at your children’s lives and you ask yourself: “Do I really know what’s going on inside of their heads?”, and the answer you got in return is a bit fuzzy, then you need to take time to go to their room tonight and sit down and say, “How’s it going?” It’s that simple. Once they say, “Fine.” Ask it again and add the word “really.”

How’s it going, really?

Try it. It works. Why? Because they’ll see you care. They’ll see they are more to you than just their kid that you hope doesn’t flunk out of school, or gets into trouble or might embarrass you. They will see that you really do care. And let me add this. Prepare to lose sleep. Why? Because you are worried about them? No, not necessarily. You’ll lose sleep because once you get them talking, they will talk your ears off. They will literally share their heart and how they feel with words and emotions that run the gamut of their feelings and that will TAKE A WHILE. That might mean that a conversation you start at 10:45 pm doesn’t end until 12:30 am, but it will be worth every minute of it, I promise you!

Will you be tired the next day? Probably…but, even in that…the Lord will give you energy that sleep can’t give and He’ll do the same for your child. He is faithful and His mercies are new each morning!

I love my children. I know you know that. But, I just have to say it again! I dearly love my children! I’m so grateful and thankful for them and their unique personalities and idiosyncrasies and little quirky ways. I love the fact that they put up with a dad that makes a lot of mistakes and fumbles and bumbles around trying to be a good daddy, but often ends up being a babbling goofball. I’m grateful for a fantastic wife and mom, who already does the things I’ve mentioned (very well, I might add). But, it’s the dad’s who so often struggle with spending the intentional, concerted time with our children. Dads, can I get a witness?

We long for peace and for serenity and that’s why we’ll often sweep things under the rug or just hope difficulties go away. Why? Because we aren’t good at multi-tasking and we don’t want any more on our plates than we already have. So, it’s easy to stick our heads in the sand and the next thing you know…we don’t have a relationship with our children that’s any closer or vibrant than one of their acquaintances. That’s sad. But, it’s happening in many of our homes.

Dad, think about your children. Think about how they look (even if they are adults now). Think about clasping your hands on their cheeks and looking them in the eyes and saying,

“Let me look at you. Let me remember how you look. Let me look into your eyes and see your heart and know how I can love you, pray for you, support you and encourage you. Let me be here for you. Let me know what I can do.”

I dearly and I mean dearly love these people and so I’m bound and determined to stay connected with them and to intentional love them.

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Of course this includes my new granddaughter Evelyn. A new family picture forthcoming soon! 🙂 May we never allow our lofty goals for our children to interfere with simply recognizing that they are OUR children and are a gift from God.

By the way, some have asked: “What about the Weather? What’s the latest winter forecast?” Well, I’ll link to my good buddy Joe Bastardi for the latest on winter. Click the link below and then click on “Saturday Summary.”

http://www.weatherbell.com/#premium

Here’s what the forecast calls for in the next two weeks… This is Dec 8-13th.

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That’s cold air folks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of ice or snow during that period of time. No, I’m not saying a huge storm. But, with the jet stream finally shifting and the Gulf of Mexico finally opening for business and injecting moisture this way…well…you heard it here first. 🙂

Kevin

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Winter Forecast-2017

Each year I give you what I believe is the best prognostication available regarding the upcoming winter. There are several below and I think you’ll see a pattern: almost no one agrees. 🙂 This is Rob Guarino’s forecast. He’s fairly solid. He lists exact snow totals at the bottom 🙂 
North Carolina Winter Forecast 2016-17 (La Nina Arrives)
Winter Forecast
La Nina is here but it’s on the weaker side as of September. What is La Nina? It is a cooling of the water in the equatorial Pacific that occurs at irregular intervals and is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns complementary to those of El Niño, but less extensive and damaging in their effects.
We see this weak La Nina to peak now but get a second burst in December and January before moving to a neutral pattern Febraury and March. This weak La Nina means a colder winter for most of the nation and certainly much colder than last winter. The key to this winter will be how cold is the cold and how dominate will the Northern Jet (Arctic Jet) be vs. the moisture loaded Southern (Sub-Tropical Jet)?. Last year the Southern Jet was the big player off a massive El Nino but this winter that will not be the case most of the country.
We expect an average swing of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) but much more of a dip from the AO (Arctic Oscillation) bringing a few polar vortex periods and many Alberta Clippers.
Winter Forecast
SNOW DAYS LOCATION AVG. THIS WINTER
12.7 Asheville 13.2″ 10.0″
17.5 Banner Elk 38.7″ 30.4″
16.9 Boone 35.3″ 29.1″
25.5 Grandfather Mountain 53.5″ 44.7″
  5.6 Highlands 11.8″ 7.9″
  2.6 Kerr Scott Reservoir   9.7″ 7.4″
  1.4 Morganton   3.9″ 2.8″
  3.3 Oconaluftee   6.5″ 5.8″
  2.6 Pisgah Forest   7.5″ 7.1″
1.4 Waterville   4.1″ 2.3″
Average Snow & Forecast
SNOW DYS LOCATION AVG. THIS WINTER
  2.4 Chapel Hill   3.7″ 2.5″
  1.9 Charlotte   4.3″ 3.1″
  1.7 Concord   3.7″ 3.1″
  0.7 Durham   1.9″ 1.2″
  0.2 Gastonia   0.9″ 0.8″
  3.9 Greensboro   7.6″ 5.2″
  1.3 Henderson   2.7″ 1.9″
  2.3 Hickory   7.7″ 7.0″
  0.9 High Point   1.8″ 1.3″
  4.2 Mount Airy   9.3″ 7.7″
  1.7 Raleigh   3.9″ 3.4″ 

This weak La Nina winter will bring near normal temperatures to the region. We expect less chances for snow this season, and slightly below average total snow this winter in North Carolina. Precipitation will be slightly below normal for much of the Winter in Tar Heel Country. http://thewinterforecast.com/north-carolina-winter-forecast-2016-17-la-nina-arrives/

Now, just to show you how different forecasts can be, take a look at the Farmer’s Almanac below. I’m still trying to figure out exactly what it means. I guess “penetrating cold and very wet,” means a greater chance for snow/ice? Hmm. Your guess is as good as mine.

2017-us-weather-map

Here is AccuWeather’s forecast:

650x366_06221023_la-nin_a-winter-impacts-2016-hd-adc

Here’s another guy’s forecast that’s usually a fairly good forecaster…

early-2016-17-winter-forecast

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says this:

Region 4, which is in the Southeast Region and includes portions of Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, is predicted to have a winter that is warmer than normal with near to below-average snowfall and other precipitation for winter 2016-2017.
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/3421319/old-farmers-almanac-publishes-2016-2017-winter-weather-predictions/#DyOjdmf9GzPGTzuz.99

So, you know what? Your guess is as good as mine! I hope you enjoyed the early look at Winter! Pray for us as we (Dale Jennings, Kandace, Clara and myself) head out to the Philippines that we may share the love of Christ and see many lives changed and impacted for Jesus!

Kevin

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