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Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

Man have we had the rain lately! 9.1″ at my house over a period of just 2 1/2 days. Amazing! I had to empty my rain gauge just to catch all the rain…

As I was going to church Sunday morning, here was the scene at the Boiling Spring Rd bridge with the Lewis Fork Creek (or might I say: “River”) crashing by! This was about 7:45am.

Note the garden below the road. Okay…now take a look at the picture I took at about 12:50 pm on my way back home after church…

That garden was swamped. (I might tell you that it has mostly recovered… As the water has receded, the garden is mostly intact. It’s amazing how hearty plants are.) I’ve never seen the water that high. Amazing indeed!

You know it’s interesting to consider… Many say that we’re experiencing unprecedented weather conditions with increased rain, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, etc. Honestly, that’s not true. We’re just more aware of these things in our day of media saturation. Truth is…if you listen to the mainstream media (MSM), you would believe that the end of the world is coming. I think there is a lady in Congress who said recently that we just had 12 years left. But, take it from a guy who loves the weather and actually follows the “history” of weather… this is simply a cyclical pattern.

Most people only go back about 30 years when looking at the weather. They look at the weather during the “satellite age.” Might I remind us…there were not satellites prior to the 1960’s beaming the weather conditions back to earth. There were very few weather reporting stations in our oceans either. In fact, many hurricanes were only reported and noted in the early 1900’s because ships reported them once they docked at harbor. My point is this: most folks have a “short-view” of the weather and the climate.

A couple of weeks ago we had temps in the 90’s for over a week. 8 days in a row at my house to be exact. That all occurred in late-May and early June. People were reporting this was because of “Climate Change.” (Note that phrase used to be “Global Warming,” but was changed because folks were having a hard time explaining why we were having record snows and ice in the winters of 2014-15. Now it’s Climate Change, because the agenda-drivers know they are disingenuous to say that “Global Warming” explains these phenomena.) Interestingly, if you go back to record-keeping in the early 1900’s, you’d find that we had similar weather in 1908 and 1914. Was that Climate Change?

There has been much talk by people like Al Gore, (who makes millions on the “speaking circuit”), who said the Arctic icecap would be gone by 2014. (He made those comments in 2005-06.) Well, it’s still there. Now please understand this: Yes, there has been a warming of the globe. There is no disputing that. Without question there are glaciers melting in the arctic and in Greenland. But, it HAS HAPPENED BEFORE.

If you study the weather and listen to people who actually study weather history, like Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell.com, you’ll find that the weather and the climate react in cyclical patterns. Do you know what they are finding under the glaciers that are melting in the Arctic and Greenland? Forests. Forests (some of them) that are 1,000 years old. What does that mean? It means that 1,000 years ago the climate was warm enough in those regions to support forests, folks! That’s what it means. It means: this HAS HAPPENED BEFORE. Yet, if you have a “short-term” view of the climate and you have an agenda to push…which is to make the government the purveyors of the climate…and you have to give them your money to protect yourself from well, yourself…since, after all, “humankind” is killing “Mother Earth,” then you must believe the earth is headed for certain destruction in the next few years.

Dear friend, please understand there is an agenda to be pushed, and the same folks pushing it are the same people who are pushing all of the other progressive, liberal causes. There is a pattern here. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. Am I a climate-change denier? Absolutely not! Of course the climate is changing. Yes, the global temperature has risen (slightly) over the last 50 years, but it’s not because of CO2 (the greenhouse effect). It’s because the ocean temperatures have risen and there is more water vapor being emitted and that’s creating more storms, rain, hurricanes, etc.

Think about this. What happened after Noah’s flood? The Ice Age. After the upheaval of the earth’s crust…the waters from the depths of the ocean erupting forth…massive volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, etc., there is tremendous water vapor in the air and that created massive amounts of precipitation (a lot of it snow) for decades. Here’s the Scripture reference for that event:

Genesis 7:11-12

11 In the six hundredth year of Noah’s life, in the second month, on the seventeenth day of the month, on that day all the fountains of the great deep burst forth, and the windows of the heavens were opened. 12 And rain fell upon the earth forty days and forty nights.

Massive amounts of water vapor led to clouds…precipitation, ice, snow and thus the polar caps that we have now. Throughout time…there has been the ebb and flow of these icecaps and the point is: THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE!

Here’s the problem…most of us just didn’t know that, and we don’t know about it because the MSM will never report (even if they know it…and most don’t because they aren’t really interested in reporting facts…but, rather…pushing and pulling the “agenda carts” of the progressive liberals). Therefore, may I give us Christians a bit of “worldview” direction from Scripture? You remember when Noah built a boat and God sent a flood? Sure you do. It’s in Genesis, chapters: 6-9. Do you know what the Lord said after the flood?

Genesis 8:22

While the earth remains, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night, shall not cease. 

Will you let that verse sink in. See it again… While the earth remains, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night, shall not cease.

Those last three words say it all: SHALL NOT CEASE. God is in control, NOT Mother Earth. She doesn’t exist. Surely we know that. God said that there would be the change of seasons throughout all time. It would get hot and it would get cold. It would be summer and it would be winter. There will be day and there will be night. There will be farmers who plant and farmers who harvest and this SHALL NOT CEASE. So, I’m not worried about the pontifications of Al Gore or freshmen Congress women known by just her initials. I’ll take the Lord at His word.

Now, does this mean that we should be flippant with the earth and how we steward our time here? Absolutely not! The Lord put us on this earth to have dominion. He placed us on earth so that we could experience what it’s like to be “little kings” and have dominion. Otherwise, he would have created Adam and Eve in heaven and kept them there. But, no! God created the earth so that humankind might flourish and understand what it is like to have dominion and authority. Remember, God brought all the animals to Adam and he named them. God let Adam do that. God wants us to feel responsible for this earth. So, I’m careful about how I live. I don’t want to trash up the earth or be a bad steward. But, I do understand that God created us to have dominion over the earth, not the other way around. I really believe there are those who would love to see humankind jettisoned off the earth so that “she” can be saved. Sounds crazy…but, I believe it’s true in some folks’ minds.

So, you pick who you are going to listen to… Yes, I just witnessed the most amount of water I’ve ever seen in my 51 years running under Boiling Springs bridge this past weekend. But, I’ll tell you this…I bet IT’S HAPPENED BEFORE.

Here’s the latest picture of little Milly. She’s two weeks old today…

 

Do you think Clara loves going to Katy and Josh’s and helping out? You better believe it!

Speaking of worldviews…here’s this week’s Two-Minute Tuesday. Maybe the title will draw you in to watch it: “Do You Like Money?”

http://link.mpbc.church/tmt6-11

Kevin

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I love to talk. But, you already know that don’t you? I enjoy talking to people and that’s why my kids have always dreaded the “I’ll only be a minute” when I go into a store. They know if I see someone I know that I’ll be in there for…well…who knows! Wink, wink.

Talking is good in that it’s communication. And if you are communicating then you are building relationships. When we stop talking we’ll likely be in trouble. And this is big-time true for our children. They need us talking to them. They want us to talk to them. They may give the impression that they don’t (particularly in their teen years) but that’s just not true. They WANT us to ask them how they are doing because it lets them know we care. And I guess this has been on my brain this week. I did the Two-Minute Tuesday about this topic this week: “Raising Children Who Love Jesus-How To Do It”

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLys4cmZtYmNwP2JyYW5kaW5nPXRydWUmZW1iZWQ9dHJ1ZQ==

But, let me be clear. Talking takes time doesn’t it. And let’s be honest mom and dad. It takes effort…especially after a long day. You may be “talked out,” but we have to “save some for home.” I say that to myself all the time:

SAVE SOME FOR HOME KEVIN!!

I love this family!

Look, if I give everything I’ve got to everyone else and leave nothing for the ones I love most, what kind of husband/father am I? I’ll tell you what kind… A selfish one. A man who cares more about what others think about him (and making sure I meet their needs instead of my own family). I’ve struggled with this in my life, I’ll be honest. But, as I’ve gotten older, (and hopefully a bit wiser), I’ve gotten better about this. Truly, my first two kids got the worst end of the deal. I’ve apologize to them many times. By the grace of God and a fantastic mother, they’ve turned out well.

Maybe those of you reading this who have young families can learn from my mistakes. Take time for your family. Take time for your kids and TALK. Talk to them. Spend time with them. Put down the devices and talk. They’ll buck it… Yes…they will NOT want to sit on the sofa and talk as a family…but, this is critical. Turn off the TV…talk. About what? About life. About the weather. About what’s going on in the country, the world. Talk about Jesus. Talk about what’s going on in the world and think about how you can teach and make connections in their minds with the Scripture. Ask questions. Lots of questions. Don’t just lecture. Who likes that? Ask questions that are age appropriate.

Let me give you an example. We had a conversation Tuesday night and I asked Clara and Andrew “If you had a friend hurting or suffering in some way…maybe they’re down or depressed, what would you tell them?” Clara said, “I’d tell them to read Psalms.” I said, “Great!” Then she said, “Proverbs is good too!” Folks, she’s 13, but I truly expect her to know these things because Pam and I’ve trained her to know these things. Truly, these are the things of life that’s more important than Algebra and Athletics. Don’t get me wrong…those things are important, but I’d argue that those things don’t help someone in a dark place of anxiety or depression.

[By the way, this is a side note: I talk to tons and tons of people and I find that there’s a real lack of Bible knowledge. And because of this, folks don’t have anything to fall back on but the stuff of this world… So, it’s social media, maybe alcohol, and illicit relationship… Pain… Suffering… Hurt…]

Talk. Communicate. That shows care, love and concern. Hey…do you have time to do some of this? If you don’t, you’re too busy and you better ratchet it down a bit. You can’t be all things to all people…but, you better be some things to YOUR people.

Here’s last week’s Two-Minute Tuesday:

Am I Equipped to Help My Struggling Friend,

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLys2cDRmZjJtP2JyYW5kaW5nPXRydWUmZW1iZWQ9dHJ1ZQ==

Weather update: Don’t believe the groundhog. I don’t believe it’s going to turn to Spring early, even though it feels like it this week. I believe we’ll bounce back down to cooler weather over the remainder of the winter…and yes…possibly another “event” at some point. None of this is a guarantee…but, just my impression of what I’m seeing and hearing. The truth is there is a lot of disagreement between the US model versus the European model.

US Model:

See how warm it shows for Feb 15…

Now take a look at the European…much colder…totally different…

Folks, those two models couldn’t be more opposite. So we’ll see if our model wins or the Europeans win. Hint: I’m thinking the Europeans beat us on this one. Just a hunch.

Kevin

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Yes, I’ll admit it… I’m an old dog! And the truth is…I like for things to stay the same (most of the time). I guess as you get older you really like routine. That’s why “change” can be hard. Do you like change? You might not. Honestly, change is harder as you get older…hence the “old dogs” adage.

Yet, I’ve learned that change has to happen if there is to be growth. Think that through. Can you grow and not change? Ask a baby that grows into a toddler. Ask McDonald’s or Wal-Mart. Have they changed through the years? Yes, we have to change to grow, and I want to grow! Therefore, change will be in the offing. Let me give you an example of a recent change for me that wasn’t easy. See this…

Some of you might look at that and think, “What in the world is that?” Well, it’s a Day Planner. I have used it for my entire ministry, (which just flipped into my 14th year a few days ago). Everything…and I mean everything was in that Day Planner. Like what? My schedule of course. My important phone numbers, contacts, and even notes from various meetings and conferences, including goals and areas of improvement. 13+ years of important stuff! Well, I ditched the Day Planner for this:

That’s my calendar on my computer, which is also synced to my phone. Now when I’m out somewhere and someone asks me about meeting or setting up something, I don’t have to say, “Let me get back to my office and get in front of my Day Planner.” No sir! I’ve got it with me then and there…right there on the phone. How about that!!!

Now let me tell you something… It took a ton of time for me to transfer all of that information over from my “handwritten” Day Planner to the digital format. In fact, as I think about it… Hmmm…. I’m guessing it took me somewhere around 6 or 7 hours to do it.

You might also note an icon in the picture above that says, “KEEPER.” See that yellow lock? That’s an APP on my phone that has all of passwords and important contacts in it. (Yes, I know what some of you are thinking… “Kevin, did you have all your passwords written down in your Day Planner? That’s dangerous!!”) Yep, you would be right…it was dangerous, but I had to have them written down somewhere, right? Don’t you have yours written down somewhere? Now they are all safely stored away in my Password Keeper App.

Yes, I needed to change. It wasn’t easy. And there are times I go looking for my Day Planner… But, then I remember…Kevin, you have left that! You are traveling lighter! You are moving forward… And there’s an analogy there, isn’t there? If we are going to grow in our Christian lives…we have to be willing to change. We have to be willing to leave things behind. Things that aren’t necessarily bad…but, things that could be better. Areas where we have grown comfortable and we’re simply not growing.

Of late…we’ve been using this logo around here…

I really do want to pursue Jesus in 2019. I don’t want to stay stuck in a “base camp” that’s safe at the bottom of the mountain sitting in a lounge chair. No sir! I want to go climbing! I want to see all that the Lord Jesus wants me to see and experience in Him! I want to experience the views from heights I’ve never seen! But, you know what? If I want to do all of that…then I’ve got to climb and that means I’ve got to change! I’ve got to be willing to leave “comfortable” to experience places in my life I’ve never seen.

No, I’m not talking about some ethereal, mystical, weird experience. I’m not talking about emotionalism. It’s anything but that. I’m talking about a concentrated journey…one step at a time…climbing…going up, looking to Jesus. I’m talking about concentrating on experiencing the presence of Jesus in everything I do. It’s a focus. It’s a mindset. It’s a deliberate, intentional process of saying, “Lord, I don’t want any sin, any obstacle, any issue to dominate my life. I only want you.” Why? Because He is the best this life has to offer. He is the LIFE (John 14:6).

Now, let me tell you… When you say that and you mean it and you really begin to take your day by the throat and you grab everything that comes into your mind…WOW! That’s when you and I begin to truly “take every thought captive” to the point that we can have victory over sin and we can truly overcome bad habits in our minds. Because they truth is…you are probably not doing anything that’s really, really bad right now. But, in your heart and soul…you look deep and you may see things that you know aren’t right. Attitudes, motives, bitterness, malice, frustration…

I’ll be blatantly honest. My mind hadn’t gotten lazy. I was like my old, comfortable Day Planner. Ruts had formed in my brain that weren’t good. I needed to be blasted out of those ruts! And the Lord did just that. I preached about this a couple of Sundays ago. It was one of the most difficult messages I’ve ever preached…mainly because I was so brutally honest. You can watch it below. If you are short of time, start watching at the 35 minute mark and watch the last 9 minutes.

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLyszZHNxNTRyP2JyYW5kaW5nPXRydWUmZW1iZWQ9dHJ1ZQ==

Truly, the Lord has moved me from my lounge chair to climbing…and you know what…I like that! The views are really amazing when you climb. You see things you’ve never seen. Is it hard? Yes. There is pain in the climb. And there is pain in surrender and confession of sin. But, there is freedom in confession. There is freedom in surrender. There is freedom in Jesus.

Truly, ruts are graves with the ends knocked out and I don’t want that. I don’t want that for me or my family or this church. I want to climb! So, I’m looking to Jesus to lead me in that climb. Want to join me? Put on the boots and get your backpack and let’s go climbing!

It’s hard to believe but Kandace and Clark’s wedding is just about 80 days away!

Wow! Time is flying! And I’m going to be giving up another girl to another wonderful man! I’ve done that once before, you know. 🙂 I hope folks will understand that Kandace and Clark’s wedding is going to be at a smaller venue (not at the church) and when you consider inviting those in our families and those in the wedding party’s families and those that Kan and Clark were close to growing up…well…that’s about it. Obviously, we’d love to invite the whole church and everyone that we’re close to…but, that’s not the way this cookie is going to crumble. There’s simply not enough room. Nonetheless, the planning is in earnest at my house and it will be here before you know it.

And that’s another area of change that will be coming to my life. Katy was married in 2012 and now Kan. The places at the table are getting fewer and that leaves a lump in my throat. But, that’s how it’s supposed to be. We raise them so they can leave the nest and make their own nest. I’m so grateful for Kandace and for the joy she brings to my life and it will be VERY HARD for us to not see here every day, but we will adjust. The Lord will help us on that climb too! That’s more “new tricks” for this old dog!

Speaking of Kandace… We’re so excited about this…

Is that crazy, or what? That’s my girl on Spotify! Her EP came out a few days ago on iTunes and it’s on Spotify too. I’m amazed at her talent and how the Lord has gifted her. She has such a smooth and soothing voice and the lyrics of her songs are about life. I like the fact that she can describe her emotions through words and then put them to music. That’s not easy, but she did it! I’m proud of my girl!

I mentioned climbing mountains earlier… It’s amazing how much walking/moving around can be done in one year.

2.6 million steps. 1,342 miles! Truly, that’s not near enough, to be honest. I need to be doing double that. But, it’s a function of my schedule (you know that thing on my phone and computer now). It’s having a big family, big church and big goals… So, there is much to be juggled. The Lord will guide in that too. I’ve just got to keep looking to the Author and Finisher of my faith in this journey and this old dog will be fine.

Of course it’s winter and you know I’m going to be talking about the weather. Take a look at what’s coming. After this weekend, buckle up! Here’s the temperature outlook through the first of March.

That green shading means 5-6 degrees celsius BELOW NORMAL. That’s 9-11 degrees Fahrenheit colder. And with our average temp during Jan/Feb being around 48 degrees…well, you can do the math. It’s potentially going to be frigid around. And if you couple the cold with an active Southern jet stream (which we’ve had the past year with record rainfall/moisture)… Well, you have a recipe for this…

And that chart is just through January 31st. So, get ready for a tough slog to Spring. This winter might go down as one we remember for a while. Remember, we’ve already had 18-20″ of snow and 1/4″ of ice. We’re already above the average of 12″ around here for the year…by a mile! And understand that temps can still swing up even in the midst of a cold spell. In other words, you can have a 55 degree day in the middle of a month of mostly 35-40 degree days. And it’s when you have those transitions in temps when you can have your bigger storms. Truly, when it gets bitter cold it’s hard to get moisture with it. Why? Because the push of the cold air from the Northern Jet surpasses the moisture from the Southern Jet. We get our biggest storms when the temps are in the low 30’s, not in the mid 20’s or below. So, watch for the transitional times between bitter cold and moderately cold.

Here’s this week’s TMT. “Does God Really Want Me To Be Happy?”

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLyt4d3doOG16P2JyYW5kaW5nPXRydWUmZW1iZWQ9dHJ1ZQ==

You might be surprised at the answer.

Kevin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Snow is in the forecast again and I’m telling you…we’re not done with it after this round this weekend. Weather runs via patterns. Once a pattern sets up…it’s hard to break it. Hmmm…sounds like habits. You know… old habits are hard to break. It seems it works in the weather too. Here’s the forecast for snow through the end of the month via weatherbell.com.

I guess Andrew will need to be ready to do this again…

I don’t think we’re in for another 18-20″ but I do believe we could see 3-6″ if snow and ice doesn’t cut into it. It does look to be cold enough to be frozen for NW North Carolina. And I’m saying it now…look out for the following weekend. Remember, when a pattern sets up, it’s hard for that pattern to be eroded during a season. It’s been so wet for the year 2018 and going into 2019, I still believe we’ll see that flow out of the Gulf.

I must say this past Sunday was a gut-wrenching Sunday for me. Preaching the message on “Consider Jesus” was one of the most spiritually and emotionally rigorous messages I’ve ever preached. I was wrung out Sunday afternoon. I had nothing left. I believe the Lord used it and will continue to use it. Why? Because I shared my heart and I held nothing back and I admitted my failures and faults in hopes that transparency would help others. I pray it does.

Many have asked when it will be loaded to the App and the website (www.mpbc.ws). The truth is…I’m not sure. It normally takes about a week to edit the messages for the website and the TV stations we’re on (Spectrum/Charter and Wilkes Communications). But, the holidays have slowed things down a bit. Keep checking back. I did my Two-Minute Tuesday on the subject earlier today. “Do You Have Peace with God? Are You Pursuing God?” Here you go: http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLyszamZ5d3JuP2F1dG9wbGF5PXRydWUmYnJhbmRpbmc9dHJ1ZSZlbWJlZD10cnVl

With that theme…we’re hoping to climb the mountain…like Moriah…like Sinai…and like our Lord did (Calvary) and seek to experience His presence and power in our lives. I pray we can experience the presence of the Lord in our everyday lives… To the point that we will desire to pursue the presence of Jesus in our lives more than we desire to pamper our lives. However we will only experience the presence of the Lord to the degree that we deny ourselves and take up our cross and follow Him.

Abraham had to offer up Isaac in order to get him back. I literally had to offer up my family and even my voice in order to get them back. It was a death in each area of my life. I grieved as if it all really happened (lost my family and my voice and subsequently my career as a pastor). (Note: this probably sounds crazy as you read that…but, you’ll just have to watch the message at some point to understand it.)

Have I said lately how much I love these two guys…

Dale Jennings and Brad Cordray. I’m blessed to serve with these guys and I praise the Lord for them. I thought it was a good picture. They make me look pretty swell, don’t they! 🙂

 

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Mother Nature and God

So, is Mother Nature mad right now? I heard that stated by a weather forecaster this morning as he showed a chart of all the hurricanes and typhoons in the Atlantic and Pacific, respectively. Is that true? Is she mad? Wait a minute? Just who exactly is Mother Nature? Where does she live? Where is her throne? What’s her location in the universe? I’m being facetious of course! There is not a Mother Nature. Anyone who knows me, knows this is a pet-peeve of mine. God is in control. Not Mother Nature or Mother Earth, et al.

He it is who makes the clouds rise at the end of the earth,
    who makes lightnings for the rain
    and brings forth the wind from his storehouses. Psalm 135:7

Praise the Lord from the earth,
    you great sea creatures and all deeps,
fire and hail, snow and mist,
    stormy wind fulfilling his word! Psalm 148:7-8

So, God is in control. Yes. Well, is He in control of the weather. Yes. So, is He mad at us? Is He trying to get us! I’ve been asked that question a lot lately. Particularly as Hurricane Florence is bearing down on the coast of NC/SC. Well, here’s my take on this matter. Think this through with me.

In the beginning, God made heaven and earth and He made Adam and Eve. And all was “very good.” But sin came into the picture. The Fall of Man. They sinned and everything changed. Think about that. From the beginning Adam and Eve were walking around naked. They were not dealing with storms, tornadoes, hurricanes or even rain. They lived in a very temperate climate. They weren’t wearing North Face jackets and Under Armour shoes. They were naked and living in a climate that was very comfortable. No real heat or cold or storms. Certainly no hurricanes.

So what happened? Sin! The Flood and death… Storms… Hurricanes, typhoons, upheaval. The earth ruptured from underneath and the rains came! Noah’s Flood! Bang! Weather patterns and storms were born! And we’ve been living with the effects ever since. Remember, Romans 8 says the “earth groans,” and it does. The earth feels the effects of sin, just like the universe. But one day, Jesus will reverse the curse and that goes for the earth. The earth will be refurbished (2 Peter 3) and all will be back to the original condition. But until then, we deal with hurricanes.

Yes, the Lord is in control and He could stop Florence if He wants to…no question about that. After all… The LORD by wisdom founded the earth, By understanding He established the heavens. By His knowledge the deeps were broken up And the skies drip with dew. Proverbs 3:19-20

Yet, God has a plan and purpose in all things. His ways aren’t our ways and His thoughts aren’t our thoughts. So, I trust Him. And I continue to pray. I pray for the people at our NC/SC coast, because this could be really, really bad. We may mark this storm as the worst to ever hit NC/SC (beating Hazel, Hugo and Fran). We’ll see.

In the meantime, I trust God…not Mother Nature. He is one in control!

“While the earth remains, Seedtime and harvest, And cold and heat, And summer and winter, And day and night shall not cease.” Genesis 8:22

I praise the Lord for His goodness and I’m praying that people will listen and evacuate and be ready. I pray people will not value “stuff” over their lives. I pray that after all is said and done, we’ll help our neighbors as they rebuild and show the love of Christ in the midst of whatever happens.

Kevin

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Early Winter Forecast 2018-19

Well, the early forecasts are starting to come in for the Winter forecast for 2018-19. My favorite (non-regional, local) forecaster is from Pennsylvania. His name is Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell.com. He is an excellent forecaster because he uses his brain…not just computer models. Joe uses the past to help see into the future. Solomon says there is nothing new under the sun and that’s true! He uses what are called “analog years” to look at the current weather and what has happened in the last couple of years to then find years in the past that may have had similar patterns. These become “analog years,” or comparative years. In other words, you can genuinely look to the past to predict the future.

Now, Joe is not a perfect forecaster. No one is or can be. Only the Lord knows the weather. But again, the thing I like about Joe is that he uses his brain…not JUST computer models. I’ve followed Joe’s work and forecasts for years. He’s uncanny in his ability to forecast. He is about 80% accurate. That’s really good folks! I’ll say this:it takes no talent to read a computer print out.

Joe spent 32 years at Accuweather and now runs his own private client services weather forecasting business. His reputation for making bold and accurate forecasts has landed him on major television programs including Fox News Live, ABC World News, The O’Reilly Factor, The Colbert Report, CBS’ The Early Show, Imus in the Morning, and several others. Joe graduated from Penn State and holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Meteorology.

Now, let me tell you this…the computer doesn’t agree with Joe about the winter weather. Let me show you the computer model of NOAA (National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecasting Model (version 2). That’s a long and fancy way of saying this the government’s model.

It’s showing BLOW TORCH for the winter (Dec/Jan/Feb). Here’s what Bastardi is saying:

That’s the absolute opposite. And here’s the snow forecast from Bastardi…

You look at North Carolina and you say, “Okay, 167% of average…what does that mean?” Well, we average about 12 inches of snow per year and so do the math…and the forecast means we should have around 20 inches of snow according to Bastardi. That’s a lot of snow!

Now, what’s the rationale? The biggest reason for Bastardi and those who look at the past to predict the future is the sea surface temperatures. See the temperature of the oceans… (Red is hot, blue is cold)…

See the cold water off the coast of Africa (right side of map)? That’s why there are no hurricanes right now and it’s why there won’t be that many this year. See the mixture of cool water and warm water off of the western South American coast. That’s a moderate El Nino coming on. When you have a big El Nino, that puts a ton of heat and moisture up into the Gulf of Mexico and that feeds into the southeast with a warm/moist winter. But, if the water is a mixture of warm/cold…then it’s a moderate El Nino and that’s enough moisture to open up the Gulf in the winter…but, not so hot that it overwhelms the pattern. So, if you’re a snow lover…this is a good pattern for winter weather.

So, let’s see… I wanted to see what the European model is showing for the winter… Why the European? Because models are only as good as the data you put into them and the Europeans typically have had better models than our NOAA models. Remember, I showed you the NOAA model for the winter earlier… Remember…warm…

Now see the European for the winter months…

Okay…what about our friends to the north. Here’s the Canadian Model…

Are you starting to get the picture? It looks like the majority of the models agree and based on Bastardi’s analog years…it might be a wintry winter (that’s redundant isn’t it).

Notice I said, “might.” After all, this forecast could always bust! It’s way out. It’s just August…but, this is a preliminary look and we’ll keep up with it and see what happens. As Bastardi says, ” Enjoy the weather, because it’s the only weather you’ve got.”

Here’s this week’s Two-Minute Tuesday about the failure of Socialism. I did this TMT for the generation of young people who are starting to believe the lie that socialism is a good thing. It’s not. And contrary to those who misquote the Bible, Socialism is not a Biblical principle. The Biblical principle is free-will offerings to love and help others…not “forced” sharing. Take a look… “Why Socialism Doesn’t Work.”

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLytmbmo0N3l0P2F1dG9wbGF5PXRydWUmYnJhbmRpbmc9dHJ1ZSZlbWJlZD10cnVl

Kevin

 

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All Wound Up

Here I am after midnight and I’m all wound up. I’ve been working for the last two days on the Iron Men Conference and I really believe it’s going to be good. Iron Men was very special in my life for almost 6 years. Every Wednesday our group met. But, the church grew so large, that I couldn’t do it any longer. Here’s a picture of the last day of Iron Men.

As I’ve been preparing and working on the conference for August 3rd, the Lord has touched my heart and I’m excited to see what He’s going to do to encourage other men and their sons, friends, coworkers, buddies, etc. It will be at 6:30 in the MPBC Reach Center. You can click her to register (so we’ll have enough refreshments): http://www.mpbc.ws/signuptable/ We’ve got over 150 signed up now!

I’m staying by myself at a small condo on Beech Mountain that a friend has allowed me to use. I’ve only done this twice in my 13 years of preaching. I need to do it more often. But, I feel guilty for not being at home helping out. But, I knew I needed to get away for a couple of days to really lock in on what the Lord wants for the men.

I’ve not budged other than to go to a small store and by some bologna, salsa, a couple of peaches and pizza. I know! Not very healthy! But, I did get on an elliptical last night for 30 minutes.

Look what I saw from my window. See the four deer…

I mentioned going to the local store. It’s Fred’s Mercantile. It’s truly an old-timey General Store. Well, right in front of it…this caught my eye.

That’s an official NOAA weather collection rain gauge. How about that! I’ve never seen one of those. Pretty cool, huh!

Beech Mountain is such a pretty place…

I snapped that picture with those gorgeous Black-Eyed-Susans on the way back from Fred’s (with my bologna in hand). Ha! That’s Ski Beech in the background. It’s amazing! It was 89 degrees when I left home. It was 81 degrees in Boone. Oh…can you tell I was driving through Boone…

And then I got to Beech and it was 73 degrees. Amazing! A full 16 degrees cooler at the elevation of 5,500 feet. My house is 1,300. Boone is 3,300. Truly phenomenal what elevation does to the temperatures. Speaking of temps… It’s going to be cooler for the rest of the summer according to the Climate Forecasting System Model.

No more “Dog Days” of summer for us! By the way, I learned something about “Dog Days.” They aren’t what you think. According to Brad Panovich, weather forecaster from Charlotte, here is a correct understanding of “Dog Days:”

“The dog days of summer are upon us, and you might think that they have something to do with hot and humid weather. Well, that isn’t exactly where the term originated from. The dog days of summer are actually July 3rd through August 11th.  

The Heat of 2 stars?

Those days are the 20 days before and 20 days after the “Dog” star Sirius rises and falls in conjunction with the sun. Sirius is the brightest star in the constellations Canis Major. The ancient Romans believed that its heat added to the heat of the sun, creating a stretch of hot and humid weather. During the time between July and August, the “dog” star rising with our sun made the ancients think the heat of two stars where making us hotter. In modern times we know that there is no heat generated from this very distant start, but the term stuck. So even in modern times, we consider the hot and muggy time of the summer between late July and mid-August as the dog days of summer.” http://wxbrad.com/dog-days-of-summer-arent-what-you-might-think/ 

You learn something new every day!

You know, I’ve only been gone two days. (I’ll be heading back today, Thursday), but I still miss my family. Truly, I’m a family man. I really love being with my bride, children and grandchildren. So, I’ve sent them several texts…including this one of me blowing a kiss.

Yes, I’m goofy! I know it! Last week we went up on our little mountain, Rendezvous (elevation 2,400 feet) for a picnic… (And yes, it’s noticeably cooler up there than at my house at 1,300 feet, even though we are only a 3 minute drive from the bottom of the mountain. It’s about a 10 minute drive up a gravel road to the gate.

That’s looking back southwest toward my home, just beyond CC Hayes Road. Gorgeous!

Speaking of gorgeous… Kandace and Clark have picked their venue for their wedding next April.

That’s Fussell Farm in Wilbar, NC. http://www.fussellfarmvenue.com.  www.facebook.com/fussellfarmvenue/  It’s about 15-20 minutes from our house and it’s absolutely stunning! It’s a smaller venue and Kandace and Clark will be inviting folks who have meant a lot to them in their lives and has made a direct impact on their lives. I hope folks will understand that not everyone we know can be invited. We’re so excited for them!

Well, it’s 12:30 am and I’m tired now. I guess I’ve finally wound down. So, I’m going to hit the sack. I’ll be back at it shortly!

Blessings to you all!

Kevin

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