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As we celebrate the Christmas season, may we not be guilty of “rushing past history.” What do I mean? Well, it’s busy and if we’re not careful we’ll just go through the motions and slap up the tree and wrap the presents and do the meals and then… BANG, it’s over and we’ve gone through another Christmas season… But did we rush past it and miss it!

Let me give you an example. You know I’m a weather nut…so, that’s where I’ll get the example of “rushing past history.” It’s already snowed twice at my house this year. On Friday, Dec 8th (7″) and again on Tuesday night, Dec 12th (1″). Folks, that’s early for any snow at all, much less a total of 8″ for the winter season. That’s about what we go all of last winter and it’s just mid-December (technically not even winter, yet).

Now, here’s the thing… The snowfall that we got wasn’t isolated to us. It snowed from MEXICO to MAINE!

Take a look…

Now, get this… Meteorologists say this hasn’t happened for 131 year!! One weatherman said it this way: “A snowstorm of this magnitude & spatial extent in early December in the deep south likely hasn’t occurred in @ least 131 yrs. In early Dec 1886, another storm dropped > 6″-12″ snow in parts of MS, AL, GA, TN, & NC w/ accumulating snows observed in the FL panhandle.”

Notice he said, “1886,” not “1986.” So, I told my kids, “Guys…this is something you may never see again in your lifetime.” No, I’m not saying they won’t see it snow in early December again. They likely will. But, I’m talking about this MUCH, this early! This is truly an anomaly. So, we should not rush past it! This was historic! And if we aren’t careful, we’ll just blow by it and it won’t even register!

It’s not often you get to see snow on Christmas decorations…like at my mom and dad’s front steps…

But, do you remember when I blogged back in August (August 25th) and gave you my preliminary Winter Forecast and I said this…

What forecasters try to do is to look at what are called “analog years” and that is where they look at the past and see which winter in the past might be most similar to the upcoming one and then peg it to that winter. The winter they are looking at is 2010. Remember that winter? It snowed at Christmas. Clara and Andrew were little tykes then…

The snow was majestic as we walked up to mom and dad’s to celebrate…

Will that happen this year? Honestly, there’s no way to predict that. It would be a wild guess, no matter what anyone tells you. It’s such an anomaly here. White Christmases are very rare. I’ve seen two in my lifetime of almost 50 years.

With all of this said, my “preliminary forecast” is for about 14″ of snow. That’s about 45% above average. However, if we get “the big one,” we could get that in one storm. I do believe we’ll have a warmer December to start…but, it should flip (if the Modoki pattern holds) by mid-to-late month into January. So, we’ll see. It’s always fun to try to predict these things. But, as we all know…only the Lord knows! 🙂

No, I’m not a prophet, because I blew this last storm, big-time! I said we’d get about 1-2″ and we got 7″. But, the pattern is similar to 2010. So, that’s why we can say, that we’re looking at 45% above normal. So, if this forecast holds true, then Wilkes County has seen about 1/2 the snow we’re going to see this Winter already. OR, I’m wrong and we could get more!!! We’ll see!!

But, it sure was pretty last week…

I tell you all of this to make my main point again… Don’t rush past history… And this is what I’m really talking about…

That’s just one small section of our Christmas tree this year. Hmm… Let’s see… There’s Clara when she was a little tyke and there’s good ole Barney and there’s Katy. Oh my! She was about 4 or 5 when that picture was taken (Pam would know :)). There’s an ornament from the Great Smoky Mountains. I think Pam and I got that one in Gatlinburg or Pigeon Forge before we even had any of the children (Pam would know :)). And there at the top of the picture is an ornament from the Dutch Country in Pennsylvania. Oh, it’s been years since we were there (Pam would now how many :)).

My point is that I stood at our tree the other night and I really looked at those ornaments. Ornaments that the kids made and ornaments that we’ve bought in the various places we’ve been through the years. Honestly, I stood at our tree for about 5-6 minutes and literally “walked down memory lane.” And I thought, “Kevin, don’t rush past history!” Soak it in! Soak in this Christmas. Right now! My parents are still alive. So are Pam’s. I’ve got two grandkids. Kandace will be 20 in a month. Clara and Andrew are going to be teenagers in 2018. Soak it in Kevin! Don’t rush past this because it won’t be like this again… No, not in 131 years…not ever!

Soak it in this Christmas. When you can…sit still and soak in the wonder of Jesus and those you love and those who love you! Why? Because if we don’t…we’ll rush right past history!

Kevin

This week’s Two-Minute Tuesday: “This Man and Religious Freedom.”

http://mpbc.ws/media/?sapurl=Lys3ZWViL2xiL21pLyt0OGh5M2I2P2F1dG9wbGF5PXRydWUmYnJhbmRpbmc9dHJ1ZSZlbWJlZD10cnVl

 

 

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Tornado!!!

Monday afternoon I walked outside at the church at about 3:20 pm and realized the air felt strange. Hot and cold air swirling and so were the clouds. I went back inside and pulled up the radar. I saw the massive line of storms developing to our west and I saw they were coming in from the south.

Hey folks, when we get weather coming from the south or the north, watch out! That’s when we can get straight line winds and yes, tornadoes. Typically we are insulated here in the foothills from these weather phenomena because we’re protected by the mountains as the fronts come in from west to east. But, not on Monday. We had a freight train coming from the south.

I got on Facebook and said:

Strong line of storms will be coming through Wilkes this evening as folks are getting off of work. 5:30-6:30 pm timeframe. We’re under a tornado watch. So, know where you’re gonna go in threatening weather. Have a plan.

I meant it! Sometimes people like me (weather nuts) can be a bit overly dramatic about the weather. I admit it! 🙂 But, I was concerned. Real concerned! Then at about 4:45, I pulled the radar back up at my desk and I saw what was coming through Hickory. I saw the hook-echo in the signature of the line headed our way. That’s when I left the church and headed home. I knew my daughter Katy was going to head to dance class in N. Wilkesboro at Tonya’s Academy of Dance. I thought, “Surely, she won’t go.” After all, I had been texting my family since 3:30 telling them to “keep an eye to the sky.” My daughter, Kandace was at work at Cook’s Sporting Goods, but would soon be leaving to go to Tonya’s to teach dance.

Here were both of my daughters and my two grand daughters exposed to this line of storms. But, surely Katy wouldn’t be going! Surely! Nope! I pulled it right at 5:03 pm and sure enough less than a couple of minutes later, there she went down the driveway. What!!! What in the world is she doing!!!

Well, Katy teaches piano on Monday afternoons and Pam goes to watch the girls while she teaches. The dance class at Tonya’s is at 5:30 pm and we live about 20 minutes away, so Katy has to high-tail it down there to make it before the class starts. She was so busy teaching her piano class and Pam was so busy taking care of Charlotte and Evelyn, well…why pay attention to the “wolf-crying meteorologist want-to-be” like me??? Right??? After all, it seems (to them and perhaps many others) that I’m always saying, “The weather is going to get rough!” Yes, I’m paranoid! I admit it!

When I was about 4 or 5 years old I remember living in a mobile home with my family and it was in the afternoon and there was a tornado warning and remember going to my grandparents home (right beside of our trailer) to seek shelter in their basement (me, my mom and my sister). I still remember that vividly!

So, yes…I am constantly texting my family about weather fronts. But, this time was different and I tried to express that. But, they were all so busy! Kandace had to get from Cook’s to the dance studio ASAP too and so…there you have it… A perfect storm of: “EVERYBODY IS OUT IN THIS MESS!!” Yikes!

No sooner do I get in the door at my house than Pam pulls in from watching the grand babies and I said, “Why in the blue blazes is Katy going to dance! Is she out of her mind!” I pointed to the television and there was the blue screen that said: Wilkes County, NC TORNADO WARNING…a tornado that is radar-indicated is moving from Boomer toward Wilkesboro and N. Wilkesboro. Van Denton was on FOX-8 and Lanie Pope on WXII-12 saying, “Take cover Wilkes County residents: NOW!”

I told Pam, “Call Katy and tell her to turn around!” Pam tried and couldn’t get through. By now it was on!!! The cell lines were jammed! Everybody and their brother was calling and texting and the systems were overloaded. But, then Katy gets through to Pam. Pam said, “It’s Katy!” Hallelujah! “Tell her to turn around!” Pam told her. “What?” “Oh no!” Pam was saying with fear in her voice. I said, “What’s going on!” She said, “She’s trying to find a place to take cover in Millers Creek. She said it’s like the wind is picking up the van and the rain is white blowing sideways. “I can’t see anything!” Katy said. It was panic mode.

At that moment, my cell phone is buzzing… “Kandace Brown” I swiped it! “Daddy, what’s happening!” I said, “Kandace you’ve got to get out of the building NOW!” (You see, Tonya’s classes meet in a second story building that’s old…real old and I knew that building could never stand a direct hit.) At this point I had my computer pulled up and I could see the swirl on the radar coming just to the east of them…but, it was going to be close.)

“Kandace, get those kids out of that building and go to the ground floor of the Wilkes County Library next door. Now baby! Go!” She said, “Are you sure Daddy, I’m scared!” I said, “I’m sure baby…go.” Kandace is brave and strong but she was frightened and I knew Tonya was too. I could hear here in the background. They had about 40 little girls to take care of. Ultimately, they were able to get them to safety in the lower level of their building because the shop owner below let them in.

Meanwhile, back to Millers Creek and Katy and my granddaughters. They had gotten out of their van at a produce stand across from Millers Creek Baptist Church. They were holed up in the back of it…drenched, soaking wet. What a scene! Chaos unleashed on Wilkes County. It was amazing! Thankfully, everyone was safe. Oh…and I shouldn’t neglect to tell you that Josh, my son-in-law was driving in the mess too! He goes from Wilkes Communications in Wilkesboro over to N. Wilkesboro to the dance studio to meet Katy and the girls on Monday evenings. He was driving around trying to avoid the flying debris that was blowing around right behind Tonya’s studio. What an amazing scene! This is the Jewelry store just down the street…

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The damage around the county was amazing…

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Thankfully no one was killed in the storm. Yet, tragically, a lineman (a bi-vocational pastor) was killed. Here’s the news report:

The victim was identified as Brian Keith Wilmoth, 31, of Wilkes County. The sheriff’s office said Wilmoth, an employee of Asplundh Tree Expert Company, was operating a chainsaw and cutting a tree that had fallen on a power line. As Wilmoth cut the tree in two, the power lines sprang upward, throwing the tree back on to Wilmoth. Here’s the full story: http://www.wxii12.com/article/wilkes-county-man-killed-after-cutting-down-tree-in-county-hit-by-storm/13090052

Please join me in praying for this precious family…

My heart breaks for that sweet lady, his wife. I saw an interview on TV where she said, “The Lord will take care of us and I know my husband is with Him now and it’s going to be okay.” I have tears in my eyes typing those words. What a Christian lady! I just sent the family some money. They’ll need it. You can do so here: https://www.gofundme.com/support-for-karla-wilmoth/thankyou?d=nsbldhX1mz6AifZ87plLIYyVTedZ9UyUeKbZk07eWqY%3D#

I’m so blessed that my family is safe! I know many suffered without power for several days. We were without power for a day. But, even in that…we see the Lord is good.

This week’s Two-Minute Tuesday was about that, “When Everything Stops.” http://subspla.sh/w4j8fkp

Next week, Pastor Dale, Kandace, Clara and I head to the Philippines to share the Gospel. We’ll be speaking to as many as 5,000 people while we’re gone. That includes government workers and public school children. Pray that people will be touched and lives saved for Jesus Christ. Would you pray for us, please? We’ll be leaving after church on Wed. night and return about 2 am on Saturday morning, Nov. 11th. Thank you!

Kevin

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Updated Winter Forecast for 2017-18

Back in August I shared a preliminary winter forecast from the Farmer’s Almanac.

I’m not sure that’s a good bet now. Why? Because it appears that the Moderate El Nino isn’t going to materialize. It’s looking now like we’re going to have a La Nina. More on that in a moment. I think the Old Farmer’s Almanac (below) is probably closer to accurate. Note I said, “OLD” Farmer’s Almanac. This is different from the “Farmer’s Almanac.”

So, with that said, I’m going to take a middle of the road view. I really believe we’re probably going to have a closer to average winter than an above average winter regarding snow. I believe we’re going to see huge swings in temperature throughout the winter and probably end up about 1 degree above average in overall temps. By the time all is said and done at the end of the winter I believe (in the Wilkesboro area) we’ll have had around 9-10″ of snow, which is average for our area. I had originally thought we could have around 14″+, but that seems less likely now with the onset of La Nina. I believe we’ll see the majority of the wintry precipitation in late January and February. But, here’s the deal: Since we’re in the “dividing zone” of the precipitation between warm and cold, we could still get the “Big One” and that’s one storm with a foot of snow and there you have it…a “BIG WINTER.” So, we’ll see.

Now, for those of you who want the details and some other forecasts to compare, let me begin with Ray’s Weather out of Boone. He’s predicting Wilkes will get around 9″ of snow. Here’s his full forecast:RaysWeather.Com Fearless Forecast for Winter 2017-2018

Ray, like me and a lot of people are really focused on La Nina… As a reminder, here’s the big deal about La Niña/El Niño. This is simply the periodic cooling or warming of the waters off the west coast of South American in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. That warming and cooling can shift weather patterns over a period of months, bringing the possibility of more sustained warm, cold, wet or dry weather in parts of the world.

Right now, the sea-surface temperatures in this area are much cooler and that is why many folks are forecasting the potential for La Niña conditions to develop later this fall and winter. See below the patch of cooler-than-average waters (in blue) that are in place right now (as of 10.18.17). That’s La Nina.

While the water temperatures are below average, they have not quite reached the threshold for a La Niña event. That’s probably going to happen by December. Most forecasters give about a 55%-65% chance during the fall and winter that La Niña will fully form. If La Nina conditions develop, most predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived. During a typical La Niña winter, the Northwest and Midwest are typically colder and wetter, while the Southwest to Southeast remains drier than average.
This all happens because the Pacific jet stream meanders higher into Alaska and Canada, helping to keep some of the dips in the jet stream farther north. That means (here in the Southeast), we get less really cold, arctic shots of air during the winter. Now, it doesn’t mean that the Southeast won’t have cold air…it just means the chances are just lower for a lot of snow, and the average temperature is likely to be a bit above average.
So, with that being said, here’s the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) Forecast is for the winter for Temperatures and Precipitation:

Here’s the NOAA/Weather Channel forecast for temps and precip. It’s similar to the CPC.

Do you see how western NC is on that dividing line? We’re in the “normal range” on precipitation, but the “wetter than average” is close by in the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.

Again, most forecasters are relying on the formation of a La Niña to provide most of the clues about how the winter will unfold, but there are other weather pattern features like the North Atlantic Oscillation (called the NAO for short), which could easily alter conditions. If we were to get a blocking High Pressure over Greenland…that’s a game changer and it pushes the cold air south and can override a La Nina. This is why winter forecasting is SO HARD!! There are so many variable. In other words, there are no guarantees! Typically the track record for winter outlooks is better than that of outlooks for other seasons, or about 30% better than the flip of a coin (that’s sad isn’t it). Yet, these forecasts are made to give commodity traders an idea of what winter might be like and typically the forecasts are good enough for people to be able to utilize the outlooks for their needs, but the forecasts aren’t something I’d take to the bank.

Here’s the NOAA forecast for temps November through January:

Here’s their forecast for temps January through March:

And here’s their precipitation forecasts for the same periods N0v-Jan and then Jan-March. Are you seeing a pattern yet?

Most folks are leaning the same way with these forecasts. Here’s one more that I use from “Weather Decoded.”

There again…western NC is close to the “dividing line” of normal to above average precip.

The cool thing is that only the Lord knows. I know there’s a movie out right now that depicts mankind’s attempt to change the weather. Well, that ain’t happening! It’s a silly thought! Only God can control the weather. Dropping things from airplanes into hurricanes to “blow them up” is about like me trying to hold back a tidal wave with a teaspoon. It’s ludicrous. So, we’ll see what the Lord does. But, either way…as one of my favorite forecasters (Joe Bastardi) says: “Enjoy the weather, because it’s the only weather you’ve got!”

Kevin

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FaithFest, Hurricanes, Florida

What a week! FaithFest was absolutely fantastic! To say that it was a success would be an understatement. The Wilkes Journal Patriot covered it here: http://www.journalpatriot.com/news/a-festival-based-on-faith/article_6c6a3010-8cb9-11e7-b683-03ae475c9443.html

To think that little ole Wilkes County could host a festival like this was amazing! Crowd estimates were around 8,000 people! Wow! For the first year that’s tremendous!! Truly, some of the best Christian artists in the country were on the stage at Wilkes Community College Saturday. The Gospel was preached and lives touched for all eternity! Now, I’m a bit biased because this was the vision of my brother-in-law Craig Church of Craig Church Ministries: https://craigchurchministries.org. Craig had a vision and the Lord saw it through! Our local businesses followed that vision and made it happen! Praise the Lord for Christian businessmen and businesswomen who love the work of the Lord and His kingdom and used their businesses as a conduit for the spread of the Gospel of Jesus Christ. https://faithfestnc.com/#sponsors

I must say I am biased in another way too. Kandace was one of the singer/musicians!

Man was I nervous. I tried not to let her know that I was, but I was. I was 10 times more nervous for her than I ever am when I’m in front of a large crowd. I guess that has to do with being a parent. Yes, I’m biased, but she did a fantastic job! You can watch a piece of her set here: https://www.facebook.com/johnlewismusic/videos/1874883719195555/ and here: https://www.facebook.com/FaithFestNC/videos/699993226838023/.

My favorite photo of Kandace was from Carly Blevins…

I love the smile! That’s joy! She had prayed and prepared and the Lord used my girl. I write this with a lump in my throat! I love you Kandace and I praise the Lord for your willingness to allow your life as a 19-year old young lady to be used for the kingdom! I thank you for being willing to stand for the things of Christ in a world that doesn’t necessarily revere the things of Christ as it once did. I thank you for being willing to put yourself on the line for Jesus! And “Thank you Lord! I’m so grateful for my girl.” As the Apostle John said: “I have no greater joy than to see my children walking in the truth.” 3 John 4.

Next year it’s looking like FaithFest might be a two-day event. Friday evening and Saturday. That would be tremendous! Thanks Craig and to all who made it happen! I’m really thankful too for our church, MPBC, that participated with so many workers, volunteers and helpers! Everywhere I looked I saw MPBC people working!

Speaking of working. There is so much to be done in Houston and the surrounding towns. It will literally take years to rebuild. My heart and my wallet goes out to those folks. I encourage you to consider helping our neighbors in Texas and I know of no better group to do that through than our own Samaritan’s Purse. https://www.samaritanspurse.org/disaster/hurricane-harvey/?utm_source=HurricaneHarvey2017Email1&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=m_YHHR-17E1&utm_content=Donate_Button

Did you see there is another one brewing in the Atlantic? It’s already been named: Irma. And she’s a powerhouse. She’s already a category 3. And wouldn’t you know it… Right now she’s headed for Florida.

Yes, she could go north and out to sea or even into the Gulf of Mexico. Let’s pray she goes north and curves out to sea. I’m praying that for our country and I’m praying that for my family. We’re heading to Florida at the end of next week for vacation and I’d really like NOT to have to come home early.

Here’s this week’s TMT: “The Envelope Please.”

https://subsplash.com/mpbc/v/wt4bctq

Kevin

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Early Winter Forecast 2017-18

Yes, believe it or not I’m getting people asking me about the winter weather forecast for the upcoming winter. Normally, I put out my thoughts around September, but I’ll give a pre-preview and then finalize it in October. So, here goes.

Let’s look at last winter. It was an El Nino winter. It was even stronger than predicted. The average snow for our area in Wilkesboro is 9.7″ per year. I thought we’d have at least that and perhaps above. So, how did we do? Well, we had 8″ of snow on Friday/Saturday, January 8/9. That was our big storm and our main storm. We had a second snow of 1″ on Sunday, March 12th. So, we were slightly below normal with 9″ compared to the average of 9.7″. Therefore, we ended up having what I would call a “slight bust” for the year on the forecast. Again, the El Nino was stronger and the storms we had were more “wet” than snowy.

Now what is El Nino? Well, it’s part of the driving mechanism for our winters here in the southeast. In fact, I believe the main driver of much of our weather comes from that part of the world. I’m talking about the warmth of the water off the South American west coast. If that water is warm, it’s called El Nino. If it’s cooler, it’s called La Nina.

There are other very complicated factors that play into our weather for the winter such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (called the NAO). If we get into what is called the “negative phase” of the NAO (which is a big blocking High Pressure over Greenland and we can get moisture coming up from the Gulf (driven by the warm waters of the Pacific), BANG…that’s our recipe for winter weather.

Here’s the difference between the negative and positive phases of the NAO.

You can see that the Negative NAO makes it cold and snowy in the southeast.

Currently, the weather patterns have been up and down throughout the summer. We’ve had periods of wet and dry. Remember July was hot and dry and recently we’ve gone through cooler, wetter weather. This seems to be something we’ll see through the fall. September looks to be cooler than normal and then warmer for October and November. Here’s the Weather Channel forecast for September:

Now, no one is putting out a forecast for December and beyond at this point except for the Almanacs. One of my favorites is the Old Farmer’s Almanac. They’ve been forecasting the weather since 1818 using a formula that’s “secret” and by using the “signs of nature.” One of the things they look at is the Moon and its motions because of its influence on the tides. They say, “Ocean tides can be accurately predicted, so part of our formula relies on the belief that we can line up certain weather patterns with a specific position of the Moon in its orbit…”

They are predicting “above normal” precipitation that looks “wet, wintry, and white.” They have noted the dates of “January 20-23, February 4-7 & 16-19, and March 1-3 & 20-23 along the Atlantic Seaboard for some heavy precipitation.” Now, to me, this isn’t a stretch. Truly, we get the majority of our winter weather in Jan-Mar. January 20th through February 10th is the coldest part of the winter. So, to guess that we could have snow during that period is not that risky. However, for them to say that we’ll potentially have 5 events is pretty aggressive. Normally, we’ll have 2-3 events in a normal winter. Here’s their chart…

Sandi Duncan, Managing Editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, stands by the publication’s accuracy track record. “Our predictions over time have been 80% to 85% accurate and continue to be a valuable planning tool for the year ahead.”

I’m a bit less bullish than their predicted 5 events and I will stick with 3-4 events and slightly above normal precipitation and cold with a moderate to weak El Nino. Which is actually good. You say, “It is? I thought a strong El Nino is what we wanted…the warmer the water the better.” No, that’s not true. For snow lovers, we want a moderate El Nino because if the water is too warm it makes the storms too warm and we can’t get snow. That happened three times last year. We were plenty wet…just too warm. The moderate El Nino makes the water not quite as warm. Think of Goldilocks… We want it “just right.”

This “just right” for us is called a “Modoki El Nino” or a “moderate” El Nino.

I know this is technical…but, what you are seeing above is a moderate El Nino. It’s barely above the Zero line and that’s good for snow lovers. Here’s what a weak El Nino does for us…

What forecasters try to do is to look at what are called “analog years” and that is where they look at the past and see which winter in the past might be most similar to the upcoming one and then peg it to that winter. The winter they are looking at is 2010. Remember that winter? It snowed at Christmas. Clara and Andrew were little tykes then…

The snow was majestic as we walked up to mom and dad’s to celebrate…

Will that happen this year? Honestly, there’s no way to predict that. It would be a wild guess, no matter what anyone tells you. It’s such an anomaly here. White Christmases are very rare. I’ve seen two in my lifetime of almost 50 years.

With all of this said, my “preliminary forecast” is for about 14″ of snow. That’s about 45% above average. However, if we get “the big one,” we could get that in one storm. I do believe we’ll have a warmer December to start…but, it should flip (if the Modoki pattern holds) by mid-to-late month into January. So, we’ll see. It’s always fun to try to predict these things. But, as we all know…only the Lord knows! 🙂

We had a great week with our family. Josh celebrated his 29th birthday (he’s getting old isn’t he?).

Charlotte was so excited! Josh is a fantastic son-in-law! Truly, he’s more like a son to me than a son-in-law. He loves my daughter well and he is a wonderful father to Charlotte and Evelyn… That’s his hand holding Evelyn as they play…

We also celebrated mom and dad’s 50th wedding anniversary!

What a testimony of longevity in this day and age where folks throw in the towel so easily. Marriage takes work, folks. It’s that plain and simple. It’s been said, “Marriage is often the anvil the Lord uses to make us into the people he desires.”  I’ve been married almost 27 years and I would agree with that. I’m so hard-headed! I’m a blessed man! If you are struggling in your marriage, you might consider this…

https://www.thecouragecourses.com/p/109320

I love Kirk Cameron and this is an online course that you can do in your home. Marriage takes work, nurture and time. Way too many people treat their marriage like a car they never maintenance and have the oil changed. If you do that with a car, it will leave you stranded. Do it with a marriage, well…expect it to leave you stranded, disillusioned and joyless. Invest in your marriage and talk to each other. Spend time in prayer together. Do that would you? Tonight? Just hold hands and say a pray before you go to sleep. Do that each night and I promise you it will revolutionize your marriage. Why? Ever tried to pray mad? It’s hard! Knowing you’re going to pray every night means you work, talk and sort things out. Yep…that’s the ticket. Talk! Pray together. Grow! 🙂

Here’s a family picture at mom and dad’s as we celebrated…

Something else that happened last week, is that a dog just showed up on our property. I really believe someone set him out.

As you can tell, he’s now a Brown. 🙂 His name is Jack and he’s cross between a Jack Russell and a Chihuahua. He’s about 6 months old. The kids love him! I do too! Our cat, Wendy, died about a month ago. She was 16. I think the Lord knew we could take care of him. He looked to have been abused and he was pretty sick. He’s on antibiotics now and is like night and day versus last week. He’s running, jumping, playing! He’s a dude!

Hey, hey…it’s finally here! Tomorrow is Faithfest!!! Kandace will be singing at it! What an opportunity!

I’m really excited about that and about Faithfest! What a blessing to have this event in our county! Thanks to Craig Church Ministries for putting this together. Will you pray with me that lives will be saved and Christians touched and strengthened? It should be a fabulous day! Kandace sings at 3:25. You can still buy tickets at the gate tomorrow for $25. It all begins at 2:30. Here’s the list of events… https://faithfestnc.com/#schedule

I’ve been teaching Andrew how to hit a golf ball. He can whack one about 85 yards.

That’s pretty good for a little guy like him!

Take a look:

Here’s this week’s Two-Minute Tuesday, “The Real Reason We Don’t Read the Bible.” https://subsplash.com/mpbc/v/ek4kwes

Kevin

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What a combination! Basketball and Snow!! And both are coming this week it appears. We know the Basketball is here. The ACC tournament is in full swing, but what about the weather? Well, it’s a bit early…but it appears we have a decent shot at some March Snow this weekend and that will only increase the “March Madness!”

Here’s the latest forecast from our United States model called the GFS.

That’s right! We could see some snow on Saturday night and Sunday morning. We’ll see. A forecaster in Charlotte is only rating the chance at 10% right now…

The system is still off the west coast and that’s why the confidence is so low. Honestly, we won’t know until tomorrow when it gets onto the continental US that the models can really pick up on what’s going to potentially happen.

My favorite forecaster is Van Denton and this is what’s on his Facebook page. The top one is the European Model and the bottom one is the GFS (US Model).

Van’s Post:

2:40 pm Wed March 8, 2017 Feel free to SHARE

Still way too early to have a good fix on specifics for Saturday night/Sunday morning, but here is what the 2 models show that go out that far. The GFS has lowered amounts from the past 2 days and last night and the Euro has remained about the same.

We expect colder air to push in from the north on Saturday and an area of low pressure to arrive from the south on Saturday night and pass to our east on Sunday. This combination would produce the snow chance that the models are showing. The ground is warm and that would cut into amounts that we see accumulate. One thing to note about the models, they show the amount of snow that actually falls based on it all sticking. With a warm ground, much of it would melt and depth would likely remain below what a model actually shows.

By tomorrow night the energy will reach the mainland (currently over the Pacific Ocean). Once it reaches land, we will get better data from Weather balloon sounds which take measurements within the storm. Then we will have a much better idea what to actually expect from this system. We usually start putting out OUR forecast for snow amounts within 48 hours.

So, we’ll see. Either way…it’s kind of exciting. I am reminded of the Blizzard of 1993 that occurred during the ACC Tournament. Wow! That was something! Here’s the snowfall map from that one…

We had that 22″ amount at my house. Unreal! Mt. Mitchell got 5 feet!!!

This was a picture from Eastern Tennessee…

I remember the snow drifted up to four feet in some places around the house. It was truly an amazing event!

Well, you can be sure we’re not looking at anything like that…but, nonetheless, the timing of the event being March 11 and 12 this Saturday and Sunday is very similar to 1993 in timing.

So, enjoy the weekend! I will! Snow and Basketball! Wow! What a potential combination!

This week’s Two-Minute Tuesday, “Children in Big Church? It’s up to over 4,300 views. Amazing!

http://subsplash.com/mpbc/v/ozgx3o5

Kevin

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Snow!

There’s just something about it! I love it!

Snow!

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It’s an amazing thing! It stops us in our tracks and for that reason, I’m glad. I’m glad we get the chance to slow down and take our foot off the gas.

Last Friday night, we watched the snow coming down through the lights I have in the front yard. It was so awe-inspiring to watch the swirls of snow.

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It’s an amazing thing. Snow must form on particles of dust in the atmosphere and fall through the sky to the earth.

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And in that process, it can’t go through a layer of warm air or it will turn into sleet (snow that’s melted and refrozen). When it does hit the ground, it piles up and then we have fun. Or at least my family does.

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Here were the official snowfall estimates from the weather service:

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Many have asked me: “Which forecaster was most accurate for Wilkes County?” Well, from the beginning (about 36 hours out from the event), Matthew East of Asheville, NC seemed to have it nailed down the best. It wasn’t perfect (because no one saw the warm nose of air coming into the Charlotte and Raleigh areas), but East was the most accurate in my estimation.

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We got close to 8″ at my house. 7 and 5/8″ to be exact. Some of the most reliable forecasters only had Wilkes getting a dusting to an inch. However, the system moved further north and further west than anticipated by most of the models.

According to the models at a time period of about 36 hours from the event, the NAM hit Wilkesboro the best of the other models.

15895659_1353385378059498_2459213497755655190_oBut, even it was too low. And it was a bust for Asheboro, and Raleigh and points east. Even the Weather Channel missed it. They sent Jim Cantore to Raleigh, only to have him leave and end up at Virginia Beach. Point being: IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST SNOWSTORMS IN NORTH CAROLINA with any real accuracy for everyone in the state. Why? Because our state provides such a transition zone.

Many are asking: “Are we done with winter?” Nope! We’ll get a reprieve for the rest of January, though. It will warm up to near 70 by Friday. Next week and the following week will be above average, but as we get into February, the roller coast ride will bring us back to Winter. We’ll turn cold again and potentially have more wintry precipitation. This winter is shaping up to be more of an old-fashioned winter where you have the ups and downs. It’s crazy that Reidsville hit -1, (a record low for the date), yesterday morning and will be at 68 on Friday. That’s crazy!!

I hate we missed church, but it was just too dangerous. The parking lot was a skating rink and the temps were just too cold. I’m looking forward to seeing everyone tomorrow night, though! I just love our church family, because we are “forever family” in Christ.

Congratulations to Clemson:

unknownI stayed up and watched the game between Clemson and Alabama for the 2017 National Championship. However, they need to start announcing that the championship game is on two days, not one. The game didn’t end until 12:30 am, so they should have said, “National Championship game 1.9.17 and 1.10.17.” These TV networks are crazy. They keep the East Coast up so late! UGH!!

See that coach, Dabo Swinney? He praise the Lord all last night. So did #4 Deshaun Watson and #13 Hunter Renfro. They all gave the Lord the praise and the credit last night! Praise the Lord! What a tremendous platform for the Gospel!

Speaking of tremendous people, I want to plug my good friend and mentor, Dr. David Black.

dave-and-me

His wife Becky Lynn (Mama B to me), died just over 3 years ago of cancer. Dr. Black will be running his first marathon this May. He’s calling it…

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“Piggin’ Out for a Cancer Cure.” Don’t you love the picture!! I do! Perhaps you would consider joining me in giving in honor of Becky Lynn. You can do so here: http://pigginout.kintera.org/faf/home/default.asp?ievent=1169252

Dave will be running all 26.1 miles and I’m proud of him and I’m so grateful for all that he does and for what he’s doing to help UNC Hospitals to find a cure endometrial cancer as he runs in the Flying Pig Marathon in Cincinnati, Ohio. http://flyingpigmarathon.com

Here’s today’s Two-Minute Tuesday.

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