Well it’s that time of year again. It’s time to make some winter weather predictions. Now, you must understand that these will be “educated” guesses into the future as we look at the weather patterns for this winter. The truth is: I’m not very educated when it comes to the weather, but I have stumbled across some folks who are and their track record over the years is fairly good.
Now let me say this right up front. Winter weather is very, very hard to predict. Literally a couple of degrees or 50 miles (storm track) can make all the difference in the world. So, we have to understand this isn’t like catching fish in a barrel. We also have to remember that winter weather (snow) is from “first flake to last flake.” The first flakes in western NC can come in November and literally last through the end of March. (I’ve seen it snow in the first week in April in Wilkesboro and the first week of May in Boone.)
The guy that I really like using is this guy:
That’s Joe Bastardi. He’s a professed Christian who has his own website at: www.weatherbell.com. I’ve been following him for years and his predictions are about 70% accurate. And folks…for the weather…70% accurate is “crazy good!” He is on Fox News a lot and he is used often by USA Today and other major news outlets. He was educated at Penn State and his father was a meteorologist and so is his son. The guy eats up the weather and it runs in the family. He also is not a Global Warming alarmist. He says that the whole climate change hoopla is mainly just that…hoopla and hype.
Here’s his forecast for the temperatures.
Here’s the forecast for the precipitation.
And here’s the combination of temps and precip in a new index he has created he calls the “Severity Index.”
As you can see from the above three charts, western NC is in the bull’s eye for twice as much snow as normal (200%). The rest of NC is at 150% of normal. For those of us in Wilkes County at 200%, that would put us around 2 feet for the winter. We are also in the darker blue shading for temperatures and that indicates we will be about 3 degrees Celsius below normal. That equates to about 5-8 degree Fahrenheit below normal. That’s cold! Did you see we are close to an “8” on the Severity Index (purple shading)? That equates to a tough winter indeed. And you know what? All it takes is one big storm to pull this off. If you get a: “One Footer,” or a huge Ice Storm, then you will get a big-time “Severity” issue for our area. With all of our hills and north-facing banks, it’s just hard to get roads scraped and for ice and snow to melt.
Bastardi says the winter could start out cold in November and early December and then pull back until Feb/March (similar to last year). What’s driving it is the El Nino. With the warmer waters off the western coast of South America, we get tons of moisture that comes across Mexico into the gulf and up the east coast. And if you know anything about big winters here in NC, our biggest storms come out of the Gulf. Remember this graph? I showed it to you before.
By the way, here’s the Farmer’s Almanac forecast. As you can see, they play it pretty safe. They don’t really go out on a limb with that forecast.
Also, while we’re talking about the weather, I wanted you to see where a scientist said President Obama missed the boat with Global Warming. Check it out here:
So there you have it. It could be an interesting ride for winter. And if you are snow lover, it could be a ton of fun!
By the way…here’s a friendly reminder from your three pastor/elders to get signed up for Flag Football! 🙂
Ever wondered what almost 10 year’s worth of messages stacked up looks like…
I was looking for a message the other day and pulled them out of the file cabinet. That’s about 2 1/2 feet. Hard to believe this January 1st I’ll be starting my 11th year of ministry. Man does time fly and I’m thinking we’ll probably have snow on the ground by then. 🙂