I guess I’m getting known as somewhat of a weather buff, thus I’m getting asked, “Are we going to have a White Christmas?” The short answer is probably not.
But, I will say this: the weather pattern is going to change around Christmas. We are going to move from a pattern of dry and moderate temperatures over the next 6-10, just like we thought (remember my blog last week) into a slow transition to wetter and colder. Here’s the problem: the wetter is probably going to arrive before the colder.
The southern jet stream looks to be loading up and by the time we get to the end of the year, we’re going to see more storms and more moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the transition to our north is not going to make the same kind of turn as fast. Obviously, if you are a snow lover, you need moisture AND cold air at the same time. So, snow lovers might have to wait till January to see our first measurable snow in the foothills of western NC.
Yet, it’s still early and if the northern jet could get a bit more pronounced a bit quicker, our mountain counties could squeak out a white Christmas.
Let me tell you something else. I follow a guy who is a weather nut like me at http://www.theweathercentre.blogspot.com and he’s pretty spot on with his analysis and I wanted you to see what he’s saying going forward for the winter.
Now check out the Weather Centre’s forecast (below). The guy’s name at the Weather Centre is Andrew. :
Interesting isn’t it? Andrew’s forecast and Joe’s are almost completely opposite. Joe shows TN and NC getting hammered. Andrew says otherwise. Who’s right? Only God knows. Why? Because there are so many variables with the weather. You know how a storm tracks makes all the difference in the world. Also, once a pattern gets established, it’s like wagon wheels making a rut on a road…everything follows the rut. So, it all depends on what “ruts out” in the next 3-4 weeks.
Another quick thought. Here’s The Weather Centre’s temp forecast for the winter:
Looks kind of similar don’t they. In fact Joe and Andrew are using a lot of the same past years in their forecast. What do I mean by that? Forecasters use what are called “analogs.” They look at the past to help predict the future. Thus, they look at past winters and look for patterns to predict the upcoming winter. Joe is using these past winters (below) to predict this winter:
Anyone over the age of 60 remembers the winters of the late 1950’s and early 1960’s. Anyone remember the month of March in 1960 when it snowed four Wednesday’s in a row? So, even though Andrew is predicting less snow for the NC area, all it takes is for the rut to be routed out in the atmospheric pattern and voila. There you have it!
By the way, Andrew and Joe are both hinting at an east coast storm around the last week of December (12/31) into the first of the year (by 1/5), so we’ll see what happens. It certainly puts us in the mind for Christmas.
Hey, did you know that Ashe County, NC is the top Christmas tree producer in all the U.S. of A? Sure enough. American tree farmers harvest around 17 million Christmas trees each year, according to the most recent USDA Agricultural Census. And nearly half of these trees — about 8 million — come from just six counties in North Carolina and Oregon.
The map below shows where Christmas trees can be grown well and you’ll see that western NC and Oregon are ideal spots (look for blue: “mixed”).
Ashe County produces just shy of 2 million trees per year (that’s nearly 100 trees for every man, woman and child living in Ashe County)! Wow! That’s a lot of trees!!
My cousin, Brett Cothren lives on the Ashe/Wilkes county line. Take a look at how beautiful this is. He took this picture from his home. You could almost walk on those clouds! He lives at around 3,200 feet above sea level.
Interested in knowing the Top Ten Translations Based on Dollar Sales (source: Christian Booksellers Association)?
- New International Version
- King James Version
- New King James Version
- New Living Translation
- English Standard Version
- Holman Christian Standard Bible
- The Voice
- New American Standard
- Reina Valera 1960 (Spanish)
- New International Reader’s Version
I’ve got to show you at least a couple of Charlotte pictures. You can ooh and aaaah with me…
Isn’t that precious? Josh a Marine…holding his precious child. It’s almost an oxymoron. Josh, a man who could withstand hell on earth in what is called the “Crucible” to graduate boot camp from the Marines, yet tender enough to hold a 7 lb baby girl. Awesome!!
Here she is resting on daddy…
You gotta love this look…
Grabs the ole heart strings for sure. Lord willing they’ll be home for Christmas on the 20th! Woohoo!!!