Well, it’s that time of year? It’s starting to get cooler and we’re awaiting that first frost. Sooooooooo….
People begin wondering what kind of winter we’re going to have. Are you wondering? Want some snow? Want it to be warm and dry? Doesn’t matter to you?
Well, I really believe most folks like snow. They might not admit it, but they do. There is something almost surreal about it. It shuts everything down for a while and I, for one, don’t mind that. We are all running so hard and so fast as it is. It’s kind of nice to slow down. Amazing how snow and/or ice (I don’t like ice) can do that.
I shared with you a while back that our snowfall this year looks to be around 25-30% more than normal. For western North Carolina that means about a foot of snow with 2-4 significant events. Now remember something about your bald-headed blogger… I’m a novice weather-guy, but I know enough to be dangerous and that’s about it. But, I read and study other weather bloggers and scientists and so I’ll try to sum some things up for ya!
It looks like we are going to have a more active southern jet stream with a weak El Nino. (El Nino is good for active winters for the south.) Take a look at this graphic:
There is a ton of snow in Siberia right now and that builds up cold air and the Polar Vortex is going to push that cold air south. That means a colder winter in Europe and the Eastern U.S. We are also seeing a wetter Fall in the plains and mid-west and that bodes well for colder ground temperatures that will keep the air from Canada colder as it comes south. Past history teaches us that wet Octobers mean colder and wetter winters. So, here’s the overall forecast for the country for temperatures:
You say, “What’s the big deal about 2 to 4 degrees below normal? Folks, that huge! Now take a look at the precipitation forecast for snow and ice:
Looks like the south might be in for a couple of ice storms. You’ll note that North Carolina is caught in the middle of snow/ice, as usually seems to be the case. See that blocking high over Greenland (below)?
That’s key to damning up cold air in the south and can also signal Nor-Easters for the New England states. Of course no one knows what the weather will do except the Lord. But, it’s sure fun to think about it. I say, “Bring this on!”
Okay. Now for the drum roll please for the updated forecast from: LiveWeatherBlogs.com (a very reputable weather blog):
|2.6||Kerr Scott Reservoir||9.7″||12.4″|