Archive for December, 2012

How much will it snow this winter? That’s always a big question for each winter that I want answered. Will there be scenes like these?

How ’bout you? Would you like to know? Well, you might be like some who want the temps to stay mild as they are now. Greensboro set a record yesterday with a high of 73 degrees. The high today missed by one degree.

So, when will it turn cold? Well, the weather experts have been waffling all over the place. Initially this is what they were saying…

This is from a website called firsthandweather.com

These maps below show what they think the snow depth in the United States might look like from late December into January.

The brighter orange show a snow depth of 8-9 inches.

Here’s another prognostication from www.aAccuweather.com.

Here’s their predictions for winter temp. It shows we will be about 2 degrees below normal for western North Carolina.

Now here’s the kicker. This was predicted on November 22nd. Well, guess what? It’s already changed. Now the weather channel is saying that we are going to have a drier winter because there is not going to be a strong El Nino. What is El Nino? Well, it means “little boy” and it’s when the waters off the west coast of South America are very warm and as that warm air comes north, it goes through Mexico and enters the Gulf of Mexico and you guessed it…we get our biggest winter storms when the moisture comes from the conveyor belt out of the Gulf of Mexico. However, if there are below normal temps off the west coast of South America…well, that’s called La Nina, which means “little girl” and less moisture.

One of the best local forecasters in the business is Van Denton of Fox 8 News out of Greensboro, High Point, Winston-Salem. Here’s his prediction for the winter in the Piedmont (of course we typically get 5-6 inches more than them)…

Van says, “Normal.” (More details can (be found here…) Well, let’s go north and west and see what our Boone expert has to say at Ray’s Weather.

The 2012-2013 Winter Forecast

In a decision/forecast with many unknowns and much variability (such as a forecast for weather 2-5 months away), it’s generally best to stay close to long-term averages in similar situations.

So, here’s the RaysWeather.Com Winter 2012-2013 Fearless Forecast:

  • Total snowfall: Slightly above the long-term average.
  • Temperatures: Slightly colder than normal (about 1 degree colder than long-term averages).
  • Confidence level: The same as always for a long-term forecast—low. 🙂

Below are forecast snow totals for selected Western NC Locations:

Cities/Towns Expected Total Snow/Ice for 2012-13
Asheville 16″
Banner Elk 50″
Beech Mountain 115″
Boone 43″
Hickory 8″
Jefferson and West Jefferson 30″
Lenoir 9″
Morganton 10”
Mount Airy 13”
Sparta 27″
Spruce Pine 27″
Sugar Mountain 100″
Waynesville 17″
Wilkesboro 12″

©2012 RaysWeather.Com

Ray is a weather genius. I love reading his report during the winter months found here at booneweather.com.

Well that’s got it covered right? Nope… Not yet…I can hear my Grandma saying, “What’s the Almanac say? Ok. Let’s take a look…

I’m going to give you a synopsis of several Almanacs in summary, because they are pretty close.

December…normal temps and average precip.

Now that’s interesting because it’s so warm now…so we’ll see if it gets significantly colder by the end of the month. Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel says that there is record cold temps in Alaska where the average high in November has been -9 degrees in Anchorage. Will all of that cold air spill south? Well, it depends. (Don’t you love that!) It depends on whether or not there is a blocking ridge that develops over the west that jams the air south and causes the northern jet stream to converge south… THEN, there must be a blocking High Pressure over Iceland to keep it locked in long enough for the southern jet to get injected and send moisture north from the Gulf.

January Summary: colder and average precip.

January 1-11 cold and normal precip… (Will they converge? We’ll see.)

January 12-23 average temp and below average precip 20th-23rd is a chance for eastern storm.

January 24-31 average temp, rain for southeast

February Summary: slightly below average temp and normal precip

February 1-11 normal temps and below average precip

February 12-23 (THIS IS MAYBE OUR BEST SHOT!) below normal temps and above average precip. This is what is listed by one Almanac: “Major Snowstorm develops; accumulations exceed one foot, strong winds cause considerable blowing…some snow for western North Carolina.”

February 24-28 average temps and precip

March Summary: slightly below normal temps and precip

March 1-11 below normal temps and above normal precip (We have another shot coming…)

March 12-23 average temps and precip but here’s the kicker…the mid-Atlantic has a shot at a coastal storm forming off the southeast coast. If it forms off the Georgia coast, as sometimes happens, it could bring snow during the ACC tournament.

March 24-31 average temps and average precip…another coastal storm could form…could be a snowy Easter for some folks up the Atlantic Seaboard…

So there you have it. Clear as mud?

What do I think? I really believe we will have more snow than last year in Wilkes County. We only had about 2 1/2 inches with only three small “events.” You know what’s neat? Man can do nothing about this but try and forecast, yet…it’s almost an act of futility…because only God knows…

So, if you have been brave enough to read all the way to the end…you are about as nutty as I am about snow. Why do I love snow?

Because it slows life down. It forces us to do so. We have no choice but to rest in the beauty of our Lord’s beauty in snowy beauty.

So, we’ll see what happens. Again, only God knows. As for me… I like the song:

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow… 🙂

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